China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus economist forecasts clustered around 4.4-4.8% underpin the dominant 4.0-5.0% market outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5%, supported by robust exports in high-tech and AI-related sectors, while second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3% amid subdued consumption and property sector drag. Policymakers have maintained calibrated fiscal measures and incremental monetary easing within a budgeted deficit near 4% of GDP, prioritizing stability and innovation under the new five-year plan without broad stimulus. Recent data through July and August show continued export resilience offsetting weak domestic demand, keeping full-year results aligned with the target range despite modest downside risks from global conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 6.3%
9.0%+ 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.2%
$897,377 Обс.
$897,377 Обс.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
90%
5.0–6.0%
6%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
1%
4.0–5.0% 90%
5.0–6.0% 6.3%
9.0%+ 1.4%
3.0–4.0% 1.2%
$897,377 Обс.
$897,377 Обс.
Jan 30, 2027
<1.0%
$67,675 Обс.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$75,252 Обс.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$45,793 Обс.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$81,404 Обс.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$222,145 Обс.
90%
5.0–6.0%
$80,831 Обс.
6%
6.0-7.0%
$87,941 Обс.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$65,353 Обс.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$54,234 Обс.
1%
9.0%+
$116,748 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus economist forecasts clustered around 4.4-4.8% underpin the dominant 4.0-5.0% market outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5%, supported by robust exports in high-tech and AI-related sectors, while second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3% amid subdued consumption and property sector drag. Policymakers have maintained calibrated fiscal measures and incremental monetary easing within a budgeted deficit near 4% of GDP, prioritizing stability and innovation under the new five-year plan without broad stimulus. Recent data through July and August show continued export resilience offsetting weak domestic demand, keeping full-year results aligned with the target range despite modest downside risks from global conditions.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$897,377Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus economist forecasts clustered around 4.4-4.8% underpin the dominant 4.0-5.0% market outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5%, supported by robust exports in high-tech and AI-related sectors, while second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3% amid subdued consumption and property sector drag. Policymakers have maintained calibrated fiscal measures and incremental monetary easing within a budgeted deficit near 4% of GDP, prioritizing stability and innovation under the new five-year plan without broad stimulus. Recent data through July and August show continued export resilience offsetting weak domestic demand, keeping full-year results aligned with the target range despite modest downside risks from global conditions.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$897,377Дата завершення
Jan 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...China's official 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5% and consensus economist forecasts clustered around 4.4-4.8% underpin the dominant 4.0-5.0% market outcome. First-quarter expansion reached 5%, supported by robust exports in high-tech and AI-related sectors, while second-quarter growth slowed to 4.3% amid subdued consumption and property sector drag. Policymakers have maintained calibrated fiscal measures and incremental monetary easing within a budgeted deficit near 4% of GDP, prioritizing stability and innovation under the new five-year plan without broad stimulus. Recent data through July and August show continued export resilience offsetting weak domestic demand, keeping full-year results aligned with the target range despite modest downside risks from global conditions.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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