António Guterres completes his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General on December 31, 2026, with the formal selection process for a successor already advancing through the Security Council and General Assembly under standard Charter procedures. No official statements, diplomatic initiatives, or institutional actions indicate an early departure, and recent activity—including addresses on climate, conflict zones, and multilateral diplomacy—aligns with serving out the full mandate. Trader consensus reflected in the 74.5% “No” price treats the scheduled term end as the operative timeline, consistent with historical patterns where secretaries-general complete their allotted terms absent extraordinary political pressure or health events. Upcoming confirmation steps for the next officeholder remain the primary scheduled milestones that could affect positioning.