Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоDemocrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 22%
Democrats 10-12% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Обс.
$133,598 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
1%
Democrats 14-16%
2%
Democrats 12-14%
7%
Democrats 10-12%
20%
Democrats 8-10%
28%
Democrats 6-8%
22%
Democrats 4-6%
11%
Democrats 2-4%
7%
Democrats 0-2%
2%
Republicans 0-2%
3%
Republicans 2-4%
3%
Republicans 4-6%
1%
Republicans 6%+
1%
Democrats 8-10% 28%
Democrats 6-8% 22%
Democrats 10-12% 20%
Democrats 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Обс.
$133,598 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$3,556 Обс.
1%
Democrats 14-16%
$3,412 Обс.
2%
Democrats 12-14%
$4,597 Обс.
7%
Democrats 10-12%
$8,975 Обс.
20%
Democrats 8-10%
$14,498 Обс.
28%
Democrats 6-8%
$15,599 Обс.
22%
Democrats 4-6%
$7,010 Обс.
11%
Democrats 2-4%
$15,636 Обс.
7%
Democrats 0-2%
$16,265 Обс.
2%
Republicans 0-2%
$5,931 Обс.
3%
Republicans 2-4%
$30,409 Обс.
3%
Republicans 4-6%
$3,748 Обс.
1%
Republicans 6%+
$3,962 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$133,598Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Обсяг
$133,598Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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