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Heopolitika·Ukraine Mapa

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

icon for Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?
Heopolitika·Ukraine Mapa

Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?

BAGO
Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$945 Vol.

Polymarket

September 30

$40 Vol.

25%

October 31

$70 Vol.

52%

December 31

$835 Vol.

74%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key node in Ukraine’s eastern defensive network known as the fortress belt. By early July 2026, Moscow claimed full seizure of the city following months of infiltration and urban fighting, though Ukrainian officials and independent assessments confirmed only partial Russian entry without consolidation of control. As of late July, reports indicated Russian units had penetrated most of the urban area, prompting Ukrainian military adjustments amid ongoing drone strikes and close-quarters engagements. Trader sentiment on specific-site capture markets reflects the slow pace of Russian advances, high casualties, and uncertainty over whether infiltration will translate into verified, sustained control of landmarks before any market resolution date. Diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv have not altered frontline dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png

Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png

Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$945
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted a prolonged attritional offensive toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, a key node in Ukraine’s eastern defensive network known as the fortress belt. By early July 2026, Moscow claimed full seizure of the city following months of infiltration and urban fighting, though Ukrainian officials and independent assessments confirmed only partial Russian entry without consolidation of control. As of late July, reports indicated Russian units had penetrated most of the urban area, prompting Ukrainian military adjustments amid ongoing drone strikes and close-quarters engagements. Trader sentiment on specific-site capture markets reflects the slow pace of Russian advances, high casualties, and uncertainty over whether infiltration will translate into verified, sustained control of landmarks before any market resolution date. Diplomatic contacts between Washington, Moscow, and Kyiv have not altered frontline dynamics.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png

Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png

Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png

Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Volume
$945
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 18, 2026, 3:45 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building station will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 3 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "December 31" sa 74%, sinusundan ng "October 31" sa 52%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 74¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 74% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 18, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?," i-browse ang 3 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?" ay "December 31" sa 74%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 74% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "October 31" sa 52%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.