Greenland's current government, led by Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen following the 2025 parliamentary election, favors a gradual approach to independence under the 2009 Self-Government Act, which requires Inatsisartut approval, negotiated terms with Denmark, and a subsequent referendum. A constitutional commission is scheduled to report its findings only in late 2026, with no binding vote planned for the calendar year. Polls indicate majority support for eventual separation in principle, yet substantial caution over economic impacts and timing has reinforced the incremental path. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no 2026 referendum reflects these procedural and political realities. Shifts could still arise from an unexpected parliamentary decision, external pressures such as renewed U.S. interest, or an accelerated commission timeline that prompts an earlier ballot.