Musk’s abrupt 2025 exit from the Department of Government Efficiency after his 130-day special government employee term expired, combined with a public feud over spending legislation, forms the core driver behind the market’s 93.5% “No” consensus on any 2026 rejoining. Musk has since prioritized private-sector work, including xAI’s ongoing Grok large language model releases and Tesla manufacturing expansions, while publicly expressing regret over the political diversion. Relations with President Trump have thawed modestly through occasional joint appearances and Musk’s GOP midterm donations, yet both sides describe communications as limited and the prior dynamic as permanently altered. A major new catalyst—such as sweeping AI safety regulations or midterms leverage—could theoretically reopen formal involvement, though traders assign low probability given Musk’s stated preference for reduced government entanglement.