Carlos Alcaraz’s ongoing right wrist injury, diagnosed as tenosynovitis and sidelining the defending champion since his April withdrawal from Barcelona, remains the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around his U.S. Open participation. The Spaniard’s recent pullout from the Cincinnati Masters 1000 eliminated a critical hard-court tune-up just weeks before the late-August start in New York, leaving him without competitive matches for roughly four months. While Alcaraz has resumed hitting sessions and progressed toward full intensity, the lack of match play and short recovery window continue to cap the implied probability of a “Yes” outcome at 68.5 percent. His inclusion on the official entry list supports baseline optimism, yet the compressed preparation timeline and injury history introduce meaningful downside risk.