Jannik Sinner’s status as world No. 1 with a dominant 44-3 record, including a successful Wimbledon title defense and multiple Masters 1000 wins, anchors his 48.5% implied probability as the clear market leader heading into the hard-court major. Traders cite his consistency on the surface and five prior major titles, tempered only by a recent right-knee concern that prompted a Cincinnati withdrawal. Alexander Zverev’s 12.9% reflects steady results and prior major final experience, while Carlos Alcaraz’s 11.5% incorporates uncertainty from a right-wrist injury that has limited match play since April. Novak Djokovic draws 6.0% on veteran hard-court pedigree, with younger players like Ben Shelton and Taylor Fritz holding smaller shares amid questions of depth against the established top tier.