Trump’s May 2026 endorsement of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate has anchored trader positioning in this market. The announcement, issued via social media during early voting, backed Paxton over four-term incumbent John Cornyn after months of competing lobbying efforts from both campaigns and Senate GOP leadership. Trump highlighted Paxton’s alignment on ending the filibuster, voting measures, and consistent “America First” support while criticizing Cornyn’s past positions. Paxton won the nomination following the endorsement, with the general election scheduled for November 2026. The market, resolving on the candidate Trump publicly backs or states he will vote for, currently prices Paxton near 100 percent, reflecting the completed public signal and absence of subsequent contradictory statements.