**Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with projected margins under 5 points, driven by an expanded battlefield of open seats and a national environment favoring Democrats.** Republicans defend 23 of the 35 seats up, including vulnerable holds in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, while Democrats must defend Michigan and hold Georgia and New Hampshire. Recent polling averages show tight races in those five Republican-held states plus Michigan, with margins often 1–4 points amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 7–8 points. Cook Political Report and similar raters list six toss-ups, reflecting candidate quality, fundraising parity in key matchups, and midterm headwinds for the party holding the White House. Prediction markets price Democrats as slight favorites to net the four seats needed for majority control. With seven weeks until November 3, late polls, turnout differentials in swing states, and any final campaign developments could still shift the handful of races expected to finish within the 5% threshold.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update$64,713 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
83%
Alaska
72%
Kansas
63%
Michigan
66%
Iowa
62%
Ohio (Special)
56%
Maine
52%
Nebraska
45%
New Hampshire
38%
South Carolina
42%
North Carolina
27%
Florida (Special)
25%
Minnesota
21%
Georgia
21%
New Mexico
13%
Montana
10%
Colorado
4%
Virginia
3%
$64,713 Vol.
Texas
$7,142 Vol.
83%
Alaska
$2,789 Vol.
72%
Kansas
$571 Vol.
63%
Michigan
$2,743 Vol.
66%
Iowa
$5,657 Vol.
62%
Ohio (Special)
$3,967 Vol.
56%
Maine
$1,119 Vol.
52%
Nebraska
$3,719 Vol.
45%
New Hampshire
$2,402 Vol.
38%
South Carolina
$109 Vol.
42%
North Carolina
$5,817 Vol.
27%
Florida (Special)
$2,450 Vol.
25%
Minnesota
$10,369 Vol.
21%
Georgia
$2,057 Vol.
21%
New Mexico
$6,665 Vol.
13%
Montana
$3,190 Vol.
10%
Colorado
$2,599 Vol.
4%
Virginia
$1,344 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with projected margins under 5 points, driven by an expanded battlefield of open seats and a national environment favoring Democrats.** Republicans defend 23 of the 35 seats up, including vulnerable holds in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, while Democrats must defend Michigan and hold Georgia and New Hampshire. Recent polling averages show tight races in those five Republican-held states plus Michigan, with margins often 1–4 points amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 7–8 points. Cook Political Report and similar raters list six toss-ups, reflecting candidate quality, fundraising parity in key matchups, and midterm headwinds for the party holding the White House. Prediction markets price Democrats as slight favorites to net the four seats needed for majority control. With seven weeks until November 3, late polls, turnout differentials in swing states, and any final campaign developments could still shift the handful of races expected to finish within the 5% threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volume
$64,713Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with projected margins under 5 points, driven by an expanded battlefield of open seats and a national environment favoring Democrats.** Republicans defend 23 of the 35 seats up, including vulnerable holds in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, while Democrats must defend Michigan and hold Georgia and New Hampshire. Recent polling averages show tight races in those five Republican-held states plus Michigan, with margins often 1–4 points amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 7–8 points. Cook Political Report and similar raters list six toss-ups, reflecting candidate quality, fundraising parity in key matchups, and midterm headwinds for the party holding the White House. Prediction markets price Democrats as slight favorites to net the four seats needed for majority control. With seven weeks until November 3, late polls, turnout differentials in swing states, and any final campaign developments could still shift the handful of races expected to finish within the 5% threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$64,713Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Several 2026 Senate contests remain highly competitive with projected margins under 5 points, driven by an expanded battlefield of open seats and a national environment favoring Democrats.** Republicans defend 23 of the 35 seats up, including vulnerable holds in Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, while Democrats must defend Michigan and hold Georgia and New Hampshire. Recent polling averages show tight races in those five Republican-held states plus Michigan, with margins often 1–4 points amid a Democratic generic ballot lead of 7–8 points. Cook Political Report and similar raters list six toss-ups, reflecting candidate quality, fundraising parity in key matchups, and midterm headwinds for the party holding the White House. Prediction markets price Democrats as slight favorites to net the four seats needed for majority control. With seven weeks until November 3, late polls, turnout differentials in swing states, and any final campaign developments could still shift the handful of races expected to finish within the 5% threshold.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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