Elevated housing supply and persistent affordability constraints from mortgage rates near 6.5–7% continue to anchor trader sentiment toward the sub-$446K outcome at 82.5% implied probability for the Austin metro median home value on September 30. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down from prior months, while broader home value indices hover near $424,000–$504,000 amid 5+ months of inventory and frequent price cuts. Strong job growth and net migration have not offset the overhang from earlier building surges, keeping sale prices flat to modestly lower year-over-year. With resolution imminent and no immediate shifts in Fed policy or local permitting trends expected to reverse the trajectory before month-end, market-implied odds align with the ongoing buyer’s market dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update<$446K 82%
$454K - $462K 18.1%
$446K - $454K 4.8%
$470K - $478K 1.4%
$91,869 Vol.
$91,869 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
82%
$446K - $454K
5%
$454K - $462K
18%
$462K - $470K
1%
$470K - $478K
1%
$478K - $486K
1%
$486K+
1%
<$446K 82%
$454K - $462K 18.1%
$446K - $454K 4.8%
$470K - $478K 1.4%
$91,869 Vol.
$91,869 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
<$446K
$34,091 Vol.
82%
$446K - $454K
$16,610 Vol.
5%
$454K - $462K
$7,198 Vol.
18%
$462K - $470K
$6,083 Vol.
1%
$470K - $478K
$12,811 Vol.
1%
$478K - $486K
$5,179 Vol.
1%
$486K+
$9,897 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Elevated housing supply and persistent affordability constraints from mortgage rates near 6.5–7% continue to anchor trader sentiment toward the sub-$446K outcome at 82.5% implied probability for the Austin metro median home value on September 30. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down from prior months, while broader home value indices hover near $424,000–$504,000 amid 5+ months of inventory and frequent price cuts. Strong job growth and net migration have not offset the overhang from earlier building surges, keeping sale prices flat to modestly lower year-over-year. With resolution imminent and no immediate shifts in Fed policy or local permitting trends expected to reverse the trajectory before month-end, market-implied odds align with the ongoing buyer’s market dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Volume
$91,869Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)Elevated housing supply and persistent affordability constraints from mortgage rates near 6.5–7% continue to anchor trader sentiment toward the sub-$446K outcome at 82.5% implied probability for the Austin metro median home value on September 30. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down from prior months, while broader home value indices hover near $424,000–$504,000 amid 5+ months of inventory and frequent price cuts. Strong job growth and net migration have not offset the overhang from earlier building surges, keeping sale prices flat to modestly lower year-over-year. With resolution imminent and no immediate shifts in Fed policy or local permitting trends expected to reverse the trajectory before month-end, market-implied odds align with the ongoing buyer’s market dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the Austin, Texas Metro area on September 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the Austin, Texas Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2887289). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2100 square feet, which is the median home size in the Austin, Texas Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/51)
Volume
$91,869Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated housing supply and persistent affordability constraints from mortgage rates near 6.5–7% continue to anchor trader sentiment toward the sub-$446K outcome at 82.5% implied probability for the Austin metro median home value on September 30. Recent data show median listing prices at $450,000 in August 2026, down from prior months, while broader home value indices hover near $424,000–$504,000 amid 5+ months of inventory and frequent price cuts. Strong job growth and net migration have not offset the overhang from earlier building surges, keeping sale prices flat to modestly lower year-over-year. With resolution imminent and no immediate shifts in Fed policy or local permitting trends expected to reverse the trajectory before month-end, market-implied odds align with the ongoing buyer’s market dynamics.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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