Traders assign a 97% probability to no arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 due to the complete absence of formal indictments, warrants, or active criminal proceedings as of mid-2026, despite 2025 referrals from officials like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard concerning 2016 election matters and related grand jury reviews. Institutional factors reinforce this outlook, including Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, high evidentiary thresholds for prosecuting a former president, and the short remaining timeline of roughly four months. Political considerations around DOJ discretion and the unprecedented nature of such an action further anchor market pricing. Realistic shifts could occur only through rapid escalation of existing investigations into charges followed by an arrest, unexpected new evidence, or a major procedural development before January 1, 2027.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update3% tsansa
$20,682 Vol.
$20,682 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% tsansa
$20,682 Vol.
$20,682 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97% probability to no arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 due to the complete absence of formal indictments, warrants, or active criminal proceedings as of mid-2026, despite 2025 referrals from officials like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard concerning 2016 election matters and related grand jury reviews. Institutional factors reinforce this outlook, including Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, high evidentiary thresholds for prosecuting a former president, and the short remaining timeline of roughly four months. Political considerations around DOJ discretion and the unprecedented nature of such an action further anchor market pricing. Realistic shifts could occur only through rapid escalation of existing investigations into charges followed by an arrest, unexpected new evidence, or a major procedural development before January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Volume
$20,682Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97% probability to no arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 due to the complete absence of formal indictments, warrants, or active criminal proceedings as of mid-2026, despite 2025 referrals from officials like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard concerning 2016 election matters and related grand jury reviews. Institutional factors reinforce this outlook, including Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, high evidentiary thresholds for prosecuting a former president, and the short remaining timeline of roughly four months. Political considerations around DOJ discretion and the unprecedented nature of such an action further anchor market pricing. Realistic shifts could occur only through rapid escalation of existing investigations into charges followed by an arrest, unexpected new evidence, or a major procedural development before January 1, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$20,682Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% probability to no arrest of former President Barack Obama before 2027 due to the complete absence of formal indictments, warrants, or active criminal proceedings as of mid-2026, despite 2025 referrals from officials like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard concerning 2016 election matters and related grand jury reviews. Institutional factors reinforce this outlook, including Supreme Court precedent on presidential immunity for official acts, high evidentiary thresholds for prosecuting a former president, and the short remaining timeline of roughly four months. Political considerations around DOJ discretion and the unprecedented nature of such an action further anchor market pricing. Realistic shifts could occur only through rapid escalation of existing investigations into charges followed by an arrest, unexpected new evidence, or a major procedural development before January 1, 2027.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong