The Ravens' decision to restructure Lamar Jackson's deal for nearly $40 million in 2026 cap relief, paired with ongoing extension talks led by owner Steve Bisciotti and GM Eric DeCosta, underpins the 97.4% implied probability he stays put. Jackson remains under contract through 2027 as the franchise quarterback, with no active trade discussions, performance friction, or reported dissatisfaction from either side heading into the 2026 season. Recent reporting from Ian Rapoport and others confirms Baltimore's strong preference to retain the two-time MVP and build around him rather than pivot to a draft option or veteran alternative. A shift would require a breakdown in negotiations or an unexpected trade request, both viewed as low-probability outcomes given the current alignment.