US and Israeli military strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors denied access to affected facilities since. US intelligence assessments indicate these operations extended Iran's nuclear breakout timeline to roughly one year or more, while enriched uranium stockpiles remain largely inaccessible or damaged. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Geneva and Vienna, focused on dismantling capabilities and securing material, have produced incremental diplomatic progress without evidence of resumed high-level enrichment. These combined military setbacks and diplomatic pressures underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to produce a nuclear weapon before 2027.