Recent US and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February-March 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging infrastructure and leaving much of Iran's ~440 kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium unverified or inaccessible. IAEA reports since February 2026 note sustained loss of monitoring access, inability to confirm suspension of enrichment activities under reinstated UN resolutions, and no evidence of weaponization efforts. Ongoing US-Iran talks, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding on ceasefires and nuclear restraints, alongside leadership transitions in Tehran, have reinforced diplomatic constraints. These cumulative setbacks to breakout timelines underpin trader consensus that Iran is unlikely to produce a nuclear device before the end of 2026.