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icon for Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Mundo·Gitnang Silangan

Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

icon for Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?
Mundo·Gitnang Silangan

Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.2%

Alireza Arafi 1.7%

Polymarket

$38,822,202 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 3.2%

Alireza Arafi 1.7%

Polymarket

$38,822,202 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,153,910 Vol.

82%

Walang Pinuno ng Estado

$1,151,070 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$675,483 Vol.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,313,677 Vol.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,124,955 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,950 Vol.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$778,173 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,432,610 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,020,448 Vol.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$919,323 Vol.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$833,743 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$438,358 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$541,190 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,148,205 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$807,276 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$399,822 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,879 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$147,449 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$215,035 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$201,356 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$837,355 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$436,805 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,351,552 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$241,120 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$389,903 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,193,812 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$286,913 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,952 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,911 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$344,166 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins his dominant market position through regime emphasis on continuity and IRGC support during active conflict. Recent August 2026 appointments of hardline commanders to top security and military roles, alongside official statements confirming meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian, reinforce his authority despite prolonged public absence tied to reported injuries. Speculation over his health persists but has not shifted the Assembly’s selection or institutional backing, leaving alternatives like Alireza Arafi or others with limited traction amid wartime consolidation priorities. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors favoring retention through late 2026, though health developments or internal power shifts could still alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,822,202
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment by Iran’s Assembly of Experts in March 2026, following the U.S.-Israeli strike that killed his father Ali Khamenei, underpins his dominant market position through regime emphasis on continuity and IRGC support during active conflict. Recent August 2026 appointments of hardline commanders to top security and military roles, alongside official statements confirming meetings with President Masoud Pezeshkian, reinforce his authority despite prolonged public absence tied to reported injuries. Speculation over his health persists but has not shifted the Assembly’s selection or institutional backing, leaving alternatives like Alireza Arafi or others with limited traction amid wartime consolidation priorities. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors favoring retention through late 2026, though health developments or internal power shifts could still alter outcomes.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$38,822,202
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 32 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Mojtaba Khamenei" sa 82%, sinusundan ng "Walang Pinuno ng Estado" sa 4%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 82¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 82% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay naka-generate ng $38.8 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Feb 28, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?," i-browse ang 32 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay "Mojtaba Khamenei" sa 82%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 82% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Walang Pinuno ng Estado" sa 4%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Pinuno ng Iran sa pagtatapos ng 2026?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.