The Justice Department opened a criminal investigation in May 2026 into E. Jean Carroll focused on possible perjury during her 2022 deposition in the civil cases against President Trump, according to multiple reports citing sources familiar with the matter. Officials in the Northern District of Illinois later denied that their office had launched such a probe. No federal charges have been filed as of mid-August 2026. Trader assessments reflect the status of the active investigation, procedural steps required for an indictment, historical patterns of DOJ scrutiny in politically charged cases, and the timeline for any resolution before year-end deadlines in related Polymarket contracts. Ongoing civil appeals and any public statements from the administration could influence further developments.