The Justice Department opened a criminal investigation in late May 2026 into E. Jean Carroll for possible perjury tied to her civil lawsuits against President Trump, with reporting pointing to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Illinois as the venue. This probe remains in early stages with no public indictments or charging decisions reported as of mid-August. Traders price the December 31, 2026 resolution near even odds, reflecting uncertainty over whether federal prosecutors will convert the inquiry into formal charges within the remaining timeframe. Key variables include the pace of evidence review, any additional witness statements, and standard DOJ charging thresholds in perjury matters. Resolution depends on an actual federal indictment or information filing before year-end, distinct from the concluded civil verdicts or ongoing appeals.