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Politika·Bahay Ng Mga Kinatawan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Politika·Bahay Ng Mga Kinatawan

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 86%

Melissa Hernandez 12.5%

Carin Elam <1%

Matt Ortega <1%

Polymarket

$27,177 Vol.

Aisha Wahab 86%

Melissa Hernandez 12.5%

Carin Elam <1%

Matt Ortega <1%

Polymarket

$27,177 Vol.

Aisha Wahab

$17,176 Vol.

86%

Melissa Hernandez

$3,032 Vol.

13%

Wendy Huang

$1,336 Vol.

<1%

Carin Elam

$1,586 Vol.

<1%

Matt Ortega

$1,163 Vol.

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$1,839 Vol.

<1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$1,046 Vol.

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an overwhelming edge in the August 18 special general election for California's 14th congressional district because she finished first by more than 20 points in both the June 16 special primary and the June 2 primary for the full term, advancing comfortably ahead of Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez. The heavily Democratic Bay Area seat, vacated after Eric Swalwell's April resignation, is expected to remain in Democratic hands, and Wahab's state senate record plus strong primary showings have shaped trader consensus around her candidacy. Hernandez has raised and spent more in the runoff but trails significantly in prior vote tallies. Minor candidates such as Carin Elam, Matt Ortega, Rakhi Israni Singh, Victor Aguilar Jr., and Wendy Huang received negligible support and did not advance, leaving the outcome between the two leading Democrats.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$27,177
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an overwhelming edge in the August 18 special general election for California's 14th congressional district because she finished first by more than 20 points in both the June 16 special primary and the June 2 primary for the full term, advancing comfortably ahead of Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez. The heavily Democratic Bay Area seat, vacated after Eric Swalwell's April resignation, is expected to remain in Democratic hands, and Wahab's state senate record plus strong primary showings have shaped trader consensus around her candidacy. Hernandez has raised and spent more in the runoff but trails significantly in prior vote tallies. Minor candidates such as Carin Elam, Matt Ortega, Rakhi Israni Singh, Victor Aguilar Jr., and Wendy Huang received negligible support and did not advance, leaving the outcome between the two leading Democrats.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Volume
$27,177
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 18, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 7 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Aisha Wahab" sa 86%, sinusundan ng "Melissa Hernandez" sa 13%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 86¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 86% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay naka-generate ng $27.2K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 16, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," i-browse ang 7 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay "Aisha Wahab" sa 86%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 86% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Melissa Hernandez" sa 13%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.