Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLula 68%
Flavio Bolsonaro 33%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$24,071 Vol.
$24,071 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
68%
Flavio Bolsonaro
33%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 68%
Flavio Bolsonaro 33%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$24,071 Vol.
$24,071 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$7,404 Vol.
68%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$8,113 Vol.
33%
Clariana Barao
$823 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$729 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$571 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$747 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$836 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$751 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$855 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$542 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$908 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$641 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$24,071Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$24,071Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 4, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula leads trader consensus for first place in Amazonas at 65.5% implied probability, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 33.5%, with other candidates priced far lower. Recent state polls show a tight contest, with Lula holding edges in interior municipalities while Flávio remains competitive in Manaus, though some late surveys indicate near-ties or slight Flávio advantages within margins of error. Key drivers include Lula’s incumbency and regional development messaging, reinforced by an offshore oil discovery near the Amazon coast that aligns with local economic priorities. Flávio’s positioning as the primary right-wing contender faces headwinds from prior scandals, while fragmented support for minor names like Pablo Marçal, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado limits their first-round viability. The October 4 first-round vote and Amazonas’ historical alignment with national winners continue to shape assessments.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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