Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and sustained high war-risk premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below pre-2024 baselines, with MarineTraffic data showing a weekly average of 269 crossings (roughly 38 per day) through August 24 amid rising ballast and sanctioned flows. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 30-34 (38.5%) and 25-29 (36.5%) buckets prices in cautious carrier testing of Suez routings against volatility from fresh threats and selective diversions. Elevated insurance costs and selective risk assessments by major lines remain the dominant near-term constraints, while any further escalation or de-escalation could shift the implied distribution ahead of month-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
30-34 39%
25-29 37%
<25 11.8%
35-39 11%
$28,559 Vol.
$28,559 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
12%
25-29
37%
30-34
39%
35-39
11%
40+
3%
30-34 39%
25-29 37%
<25 11.8%
35-39 11%
$28,559 Vol.
$28,559 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$4,897 Vol.
12%
25-29
$6,816 Vol.
37%
30-34
$6,794 Vol.
39%
35-39
$4,148 Vol.
11%
40+
$5,905 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and sustained high war-risk premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below pre-2024 baselines, with MarineTraffic data showing a weekly average of 269 crossings (roughly 38 per day) through August 24 amid rising ballast and sanctioned flows. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 30-34 (38.5%) and 25-29 (36.5%) buckets prices in cautious carrier testing of Suez routings against volatility from fresh threats and selective diversions. Elevated insurance costs and selective risk assessments by major lines remain the dominant near-term constraints, while any further escalation or de-escalation could shift the implied distribution ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
Volume
$28,559Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and sustained high war-risk premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below pre-2024 baselines, with MarineTraffic data showing a weekly average of 269 crossings (roughly 38 per day) through August 24 amid rising ballast and sanctioned flows. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 30-34 (38.5%) and 25-29 (36.5%) buckets prices in cautious carrier testing of Suez routings against volatility from fresh threats and selective diversions. Elevated insurance costs and selective risk assessments by major lines remain the dominant near-term constraints, while any further escalation or de-escalation could shift the implied distribution ahead of month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$28,559Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Aug 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETResolution Source
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels and sustained high war-risk premiums have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below pre-2024 baselines, with MarineTraffic data showing a weekly average of 269 crossings (roughly 38 per day) through August 24 amid rising ballast and sanctioned flows. Trader consensus reflected in the closely matched 30-34 (38.5%) and 25-29 (36.5%) buckets prices in cautious carrier testing of Suez routings against volatility from fresh threats and selective diversions. Elevated insurance costs and selective risk assessments by major lines remain the dominant near-term constraints, while any further escalation or de-escalation could shift the implied distribution ahead of month-end resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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