**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16, 2026, stems directly from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official minimum temperature reading at its headquarters station.** Real-time observations and post-event verification confirmed this value amid a rainy day with daytime highs reaching 31°C, consistent with forecast guidance of 26–31°C and the influence of a moderating northeast monsoon flow that limited overnight cooling. Historical September climatology (1991–2020 normals near 23.5–25°C lows) provides context, but the specific 24-hour period aligned precisely with the recorded absolute minimum. A data revision by the HKO or use of an alternate station threshold could theoretically shift resolution, though such changes are rare once preliminary observations are validated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on September 16?
27°C 99.5%
26°C 2.0%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$15,871 ปริมาณ
$15,871 ปริมาณ
Sep 16, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
100%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 99.5%
26°C 2.0%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$15,871 ปริมาณ
$15,871 ปริมาณ
Sep 16, 2026
21°C or below
$188 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$188 ปริมาณ
<1%
23°C
$115 ปริมาณ
1%
24°C
$613 ปริมาณ
1%
25°C
$1,248 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$3,903 ปริมาณ
2%
27°C
$5,620 ปริมาณ
100%
28°C
$1,623 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$28 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$1,172 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,172 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16, 2026, stems directly from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official minimum temperature reading at its headquarters station.**
Real-time observations and post-event verification confirmed this value amid a rainy day with daytime highs reaching 31°C, consistent with forecast guidance of 26–31°C and the influence of a moderating northeast monsoon flow that limited overnight cooling. Historical September climatology (1991–2020 normals near 23.5–25°C lows) provides context, but the specific 24-hour period aligned precisely with the recorded absolute minimum.
A data revision by the HKO or use of an alternate station threshold could theoretically shift resolution, though such changes are rare once preliminary observations are validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,871วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16, 2026, stems directly from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official minimum temperature reading at its headquarters station.**
Real-time observations and post-event verification confirmed this value amid a rainy day with daytime highs reaching 31°C, consistent with forecast guidance of 26–31°C and the influence of a moderating northeast monsoon flow that limited overnight cooling. Historical September climatology (1991–2020 normals near 23.5–25°C lows) provides context, but the specific 24-hour period aligned precisely with the recorded absolute minimum.
A data revision by the HKO or use of an alternate station threshold could theoretically shift resolution, though such changes are rare once preliminary observations are validated.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$15,871วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**The overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for a 27°C low on September 16, 2026, stems directly from the Hong Kong Observatory’s official minimum temperature reading at its headquarters station.** Real-time observations and post-event verification confirmed this value amid a rainy day with daytime highs reaching 31°C, consistent with forecast guidance of 26–31°C and the influence of a moderating northeast monsoon flow that limited overnight cooling. Historical September climatology (1991–2020 normals near 23.5–25°C lows) provides context, but the specific 24-hour period aligned precisely with the recorded absolute minimum. A data revision by the HKO or use of an alternate station threshold could theoretically shift resolution, though such changes are rare once preliminary observations are validated.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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