Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36) seats in the outgoing Knesset. This gap reflects sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple August surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 13. Factors include lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, coalition strains with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, and internal Likud primary dynamics marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s expanded control over the slate. Opposition blocs frequently poll near or above the 61-seat majority threshold when including centrist and Arab parties, reinforcing trader consensus on a Likud seat decline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว87% โอกาส
$11,128 ปริมาณ
$11,128 ปริมาณ
Oct 26, 2026
87% โอกาส
$11,128 ปริมาณ
$11,128 ปริมาณ
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36) seats in the outgoing Knesset. This gap reflects sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple August surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 13. Factors include lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, coalition strains with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, and internal Likud primary dynamics marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s expanded control over the slate. Opposition blocs frequently poll near or above the 61-seat majority threshold when including centrist and Arab parties, reinforcing trader consensus on a Likud seat decline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,128วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36) seats in the outgoing Knesset. This gap reflects sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple August surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 13. Factors include lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, coalition strains with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, and internal Likud primary dynamics marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s expanded control over the slate. Opposition blocs frequently poll near or above the 61-seat majority threshold when including centrist and Arab parties, reinforcing trader consensus on a Likud seat decline.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,128วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 27, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election consistently projects Likud at 21–25 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36) seats in the outgoing Knesset. This gap reflects sustained voter shifts toward opposition parties, particularly Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar, which has matched or exceeded Likud in multiple August surveys from firms including Midgam, Kantar, and Channel 13. Factors include lingering effects from the post-October 7 security environment, coalition strains with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, and internal Likud primary dynamics marked by low turnout and Netanyahu’s expanded control over the slate. Opposition blocs frequently poll near or above the 61-seat majority threshold when including centrist and Arab parties, reinforcing trader consensus on a Likud seat decline.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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