The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Trader pricing places non-Labour victory at 50 percent because the seat’s 2024 left-wing vote split and recent Camden local gains for the Greens create conditions for a narrow upset on October 8. Polanski’s selection, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement and the party’s strengthened local organization, underpins the combined 42 percent probability across Green margin bands. Labour’s position rests on its unbroken hold since 1983 and Abdi-Wali’s profile as council leader, yet the 30.5 percent chance of a 15-plus point win reflects caution over lower by-election turnout and national government fatigue. Other candidates remain marginal given the two-party dynamic.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วLabour 15%+ 23%
Labour 10-15% 21%
Labour 5-10% 15%
Labour 0-5% 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
22%
Labour 10-15%
21%
Labour 5-10%
15%
Labour 0-5%
14%
Green 0-5%
10%
Green 5-10%
13%
Green 10-15%
13%
Green 15%+
5%
Labour 15%+ 23%
Labour 10-15% 21%
Labour 5-10% 15%
Labour 0-5% 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 8, 2026
Labour 15%+
$96 ปริมาณ
22%
Labour 10-15%
$100 ปริมาณ
21%
Labour 5-10%
$60 ปริมาณ
15%
Labour 0-5%
$70 ปริมาณ
14%
Green 0-5%
$60 ปริมาณ
10%
Green 5-10%
$60 ปริมาณ
13%
Green 10-15%
$79 ปริมาณ
13%
Green 15%+
$60 ปริมาณ
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Trader pricing places non-Labour victory at 50 percent because the seat’s 2024 left-wing vote split and recent Camden local gains for the Greens create conditions for a narrow upset on October 8. Polanski’s selection, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement and the party’s strengthened local organization, underpins the combined 42 percent probability across Green margin bands. Labour’s position rests on its unbroken hold since 1983 and Abdi-Wali’s profile as council leader, yet the 30.5 percent chance of a 15-plus point win reflects caution over lower by-election turnout and national government fatigue. Other candidates remain marginal given the two-party dynamic.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$585วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Trader pricing places non-Labour victory at 50 percent because the seat’s 2024 left-wing vote split and recent Camden local gains for the Greens create conditions for a narrow upset on October 8. Polanski’s selection, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement and the party’s strengthened local organization, underpins the combined 42 percent probability across Green margin bands. Labour’s position rests on its unbroken hold since 1983 and Abdi-Wali’s profile as council leader, yet the 30.5 percent chance of a 15-plus point win reflects caution over lower by-election turnout and national government fatigue. Other candidates remain marginal given the two-party dynamic.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this by-election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the candidate who wins the most valid votes and the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate in question.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a candidate standing for a party other than the Labour Party or the Green Party wins the most valid votes, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose party name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another candidate wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$585วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 8, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The by-election, triggered by Keir Starmer’s September 1 resignation, features a tight contest between Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali and Green leader Zack Polanski. Trader pricing places non-Labour victory at 50 percent because the seat’s 2024 left-wing vote split and recent Camden local gains for the Greens create conditions for a narrow upset on October 8. Polanski’s selection, backed by independent Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement and the party’s strengthened local organization, underpins the combined 42 percent probability across Green margin bands. Labour’s position rests on its unbroken hold since 1983 and Abdi-Wali’s profile as council leader, yet the 30.5 percent chance of a 15-plus point win reflects caution over lower by-election turnout and national government fatigue. Other candidates remain marginal given the two-party dynamic.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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