Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Madrid on July 22?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 22?
39°C 64%
40°C 27%
41°C 7%
38°C 5.1%
ใหม่
$47,859 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$47,859 ปริมาณ
Jul 22, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
5%
39°C
64%
40°C
27%
41°C
7%
42°C
1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
39°C 64%
40°C 27%
41°C 7%
38°C 5.1%
ใหม่
$47,859 ปริมาณ
ใหม่
$47,859 ปริมาณ
Jul 22, 2026
34°C or below
$241 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C
$710 ปริมาณ
<1%
36°C
$2,680 ปริมาณ
1%
37°C
$4,457 ปริมาณ
1%
38°C
$7,717 ปริมาณ
5%
39°C
$7,784 ปริมาณ
64%
40°C
$13,456 ปริมาณ
27%
41°C
$7,711 ปริมาณ
7%
42°C
$2,467 ปริมาณ
1%
43°C
$637 ปริมาณ
<1%
44°C or higher
$172 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$47,859วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$47,859วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 22, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 20, 2026, 12:10 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Spain's ongoing heatwave, driven by a surge of hot, dry Saharan air mass advection beginning July 21, forms the core driver behind the tight 39–40°C contest for Madrid's July 22 maximum. Official AEMET monitoring and ensemble forecasts show regional highs pushing into the upper 30s to low 40s Celsius amid clear skies and light winds that limit mixing, with Madrid's urban heat island potentially adding 1–2°C locally. Model consensus clusters near 39–40°C but diverges on exact peak timing and any late-day cooling, creating the balanced market-implied odds. Historical July baselines average around 33–35°C, making this event an outlier tied to the broader 2026 European heat pattern. Updated model runs and AEMET briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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