Javier Milei holds the lead in trader pricing for the 2027 Argentine presidential election due to his incumbency and La Libertad Avanza’s stronger congressional position after the 2025 midterms, though recent economic pressures have narrowed that edge. Axel Kicillof’s 41 percent share reflects Peronist efforts to consolidate behind the Buenos Aires governor through alliance talks involving Sergio Massa and other factions, positioning him as the main alternative amid voter fatigue. Milei’s approval ratings have fallen into the mid-30s in multiple 2026 surveys, driven by persistent inflation, unemployment rises, and corruption allegations that have eroded earlier gains from deficit reduction and currency reforms. Polling trends show a competitive race where Kicillof gains when Peronism unites, while Milei retains support in scenarios emphasizing macroeconomic stabilization before the October 2027 vote. Fragmented opposition options like Massa or Mauricio Macri keep their implied probabilities low.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วArgentina Presidential Election Winner
Argentina Presidential Election Winner
Javier Milei 52%
Axel Kicillof 42%
Sergio Massa 5.4%
Myriam Bregman 1.4%
$528,530 ปริมาณ
$528,530 ปริมาณ
Javier Milei
52%
Axel Kicillof
42%
Sergio Massa
5%
Myriam Bregman
1%
Dante Gebel
1%
Juan Grabois
1%
Victoria Villarruel
<1%
Mauricio Macri
<1%
Esteban Bullrich
<1%
Juan Schiaretti
<1%
Facundo Manes
<1%
Javier Milei 52%
Axel Kicillof 42%
Sergio Massa 5.4%
Myriam Bregman 1.4%
$528,530 ปริมาณ
$528,530 ปริมาณ
Javier Milei
52%
Axel Kicillof
42%
Sergio Massa
5%
Myriam Bregman
1%
Dante Gebel
1%
Juan Grabois
1%
Victoria Villarruel
<1%
Mauricio Macri
<1%
Esteban Bullrich
<1%
Juan Schiaretti
<1%
Facundo Manes
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: May 1, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Argentinian Presidential election.
This market includes any potential second round.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Argentina government sources, including the Cámara Nacional Electoral (https://www.electoral.gob.ar/nuevo/index.php) and the Dirección Nacional Electoral (https://www.argentina.gob.ar/dine).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Javier Milei holds the lead in trader pricing for the 2027 Argentine presidential election due to his incumbency and La Libertad Avanza’s stronger congressional position after the 2025 midterms, though recent economic pressures have narrowed that edge. Axel Kicillof’s 41 percent share reflects Peronist efforts to consolidate behind the Buenos Aires governor through alliance talks involving Sergio Massa and other factions, positioning him as the main alternative amid voter fatigue. Milei’s approval ratings have fallen into the mid-30s in multiple 2026 surveys, driven by persistent inflation, unemployment rises, and corruption allegations that have eroded earlier gains from deficit reduction and currency reforms. Polling trends show a competitive race where Kicillof gains when Peronism unites, while Milei retains support in scenarios emphasizing macroeconomic stabilization before the October 2027 vote. Fragmented opposition options like Massa or Mauricio Macri keep their implied probabilities low.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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