Hawthorn holds a 60% implied probability in the Collingwood versus Hawthorn matchup due to its stronger 2026 campaign, finishing fourth on the ladder with a 15-6-2 record compared to the Magpies’ ninth-place 12-9-2 mark. The Hawks demonstrated superior consistency across the home-and-away season, including a narrow draw against Collingwood in round 23 and a convincing 62-point win over West Coast in round 24, while boasting balanced scoring and defensive structures. Collingwood’s late surge improved its offensive output but has been undermined by a depleted injury list featuring long-term absences for Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard, and Scott Pendlebury, plus limited depth in key positions. Hawthorn’s healthier roster and higher percentage position it as the consensus favorite in trader pricing.
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Collingwood Magpies – Hawthorn Hawks
Moneyline
$93 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Collingwood Magpies" if Collingwood Magpies is officially credited with the match win.
This market will resolve to "Hawthorn Hawks" if Hawthorn Hawks is officially credited with the match win.
The official final result will be used, including extra time when the competition uses it. If the official result is a draw, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to a team only if that team is officially credited with the win; otherwise it will resolve 50-50. If the match does not begin, is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without beginning, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official Australian Football League results. If official results have not been published within 24 hours after the match concludes, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 4:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.afl.com.au/aflwResolver
0x65070BE91...Collingwood Magpies – Hawthorn Hawks
Moneyline
$93 Vol.
This market will resolve to "Collingwood Magpies" if Collingwood Magpies is officially credited with the match win.
This market will resolve to "Hawthorn Hawks" if Hawthorn Hawks is officially credited with the match win.
The official final result will be used, including extra time when the competition uses it. If the official result is a draw, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve to a team only if that team is officially credited with the win; otherwise it will resolve 50-50. If the match does not begin, is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without beginning, this market will resolve 50-50.
Resolution will be based on official Australian Football League results. If official results have not been published within 24 hours after the match concludes, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 4:31 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.afl.com.au/aflwResolver
0x65070BE91...Hawthorn holds a 60% implied probability in the Collingwood versus Hawthorn matchup due to its stronger 2026 campaign, finishing fourth on the ladder with a 15-6-2 record compared to the Magpies’ ninth-place 12-9-2 mark. The Hawks demonstrated superior consistency across the home-and-away season, including a narrow draw against Collingwood in round 23 and a convincing 62-point win over West Coast in round 24, while boasting balanced scoring and defensive structures. Collingwood’s late surge improved its offensive output but has been undermined by a depleted injury list featuring long-term absences for Darcy Moore, Brayden Maynard, and Scott Pendlebury, plus limited depth in key positions. Hawthorn’s healthier roster and higher percentage position it as the consensus favorite in trader pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBeware of external links.
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