**Ukraine’s constitutional ban on elections during martial law, repeatedly extended through at least 31 October 2026, remains the dominant barrier to any change in leadership before year-end.** Martial law, in force since Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion, suspends presidential and parliamentary votes, and parliament has approved its continuation in 90-day increments with no sign of lifting it amid active fighting. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has publicly rejected recent calls for a wartime vote, describing elections now as a “huge risk” and potential “tsunami” that would divide the country and play into Russia’s hands. A brief August 2026 push by ousted Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov for immediate polls drew limited support and was firmly dismissed, with Zelenskyy stating he would only consider the idea under strict security conditions from allies that have not materialized. No scheduled election date exists before late 2026 at the earliest, displaced populations, frontline troops, and occupied territory further complicate any rapid vote. While some polls show Zelenskyy’s support has softened amid corruption concerns and war fatigue, the absence of a legal or practical path to removal or succession in the remaining months underpins trader consensus that he will still hold office on 31 December 2026.