Persistent severance of diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by the 2026 US-Iran conflict that began with strikes in February and led only to an interim June memorandum of understanding, continues to block any embassy reopening. Talks stalled after the 60-day window closed without agreement on core issues such as the nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz access, prompting the Trump administration to shift toward expanded sanctions and secondary economic measures. Other Western missions have resumed operations in Tehran, yet the United States maintains its virtual embassy and relies on Switzerland as protecting power. A full reopening by year-end would require a comprehensive bilateral accord resolving multiple longstanding disputes, an outcome traders view as improbable given current deadlock and institutional barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОткроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Откроют ли США свое посольство в Иране в 2026 году?
Да
5% вероятность
$158,402 Объем
$158,402 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$158,402 Объем
$158,402 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent severance of diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by the 2026 US-Iran conflict that began with strikes in February and led only to an interim June memorandum of understanding, continues to block any embassy reopening. Talks stalled after the 60-day window closed without agreement on core issues such as the nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz access, prompting the Trump administration to shift toward expanded sanctions and secondary economic measures. Other Western missions have resumed operations in Tehran, yet the United States maintains its virtual embassy and relies on Switzerland as protecting power. A full reopening by year-end would require a comprehensive bilateral accord resolving multiple longstanding disputes, an outcome traders view as improbable given current deadlock and institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Объем
$158,402Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent severance of diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by the 2026 US-Iran conflict that began with strikes in February and led only to an interim June memorandum of understanding, continues to block any embassy reopening. Talks stalled after the 60-day window closed without agreement on core issues such as the nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz access, prompting the Trump administration to shift toward expanded sanctions and secondary economic measures. Other Western missions have resumed operations in Tehran, yet the United States maintains its virtual embassy and relies on Switzerland as protecting power. A full reopening by year-end would require a comprehensive bilateral accord resolving multiple longstanding disputes, an outcome traders view as improbable given current deadlock and institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$158,402Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent severance of diplomatic relations since 1980, compounded by the 2026 US-Iran conflict that began with strikes in February and led only to an interim June memorandum of understanding, continues to block any embassy reopening. Talks stalled after the 60-day window closed without agreement on core issues such as the nuclear program and Strait of Hormuz access, prompting the Trump administration to shift toward expanded sanctions and secondary economic measures. Other Western missions have resumed operations in Tehran, yet the United States maintains its virtual embassy and relies on Switzerland as protecting power. A full reopening by year-end would require a comprehensive bilateral accord resolving multiple longstanding disputes, an outcome traders view as improbable given current deadlock and institutional barriers.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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