Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense report released August 31, 2026, assessed that the People's Liberation Army continues to lack the full joint capabilities needed for a complex large-scale amphibious invasion, despite accelerated efforts to improve landing vessels, logistics, drones, and satellite support. U.S. intelligence assessments have similarly found no fixed Chinese timeline or current plan for an attack by 2027. Recent developments center on expanded China Coast Guard patrols and law-enforcement operations east of Taiwan through July and August, alongside routine PLA exercises focused on encirclement and blockade scenarios rather than assault. Purges of senior PLA officers earlier in 2026 have further complicated command readiness. These factors underpin trader consensus that coercive gray-zone pressure remains Beijing's primary near-term approach.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
$3,081,068 Объем
$3,081,068 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
12% вероятность
$3,081,068 Объем
$3,081,068 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense report released August 31, 2026, assessed that the People's Liberation Army continues to lack the full joint capabilities needed for a complex large-scale amphibious invasion, despite accelerated efforts to improve landing vessels, logistics, drones, and satellite support. U.S. intelligence assessments have similarly found no fixed Chinese timeline or current plan for an attack by 2027. Recent developments center on expanded China Coast Guard patrols and law-enforcement operations east of Taiwan through July and August, alongside routine PLA exercises focused on encirclement and blockade scenarios rather than assault. Purges of senior PLA officers earlier in 2026 have further complicated command readiness. These factors underpin trader consensus that coercive gray-zone pressure remains Beijing's primary near-term approach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$3,081,068Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense report released August 31, 2026, assessed that the People's Liberation Army continues to lack the full joint capabilities needed for a complex large-scale amphibious invasion, despite accelerated efforts to improve landing vessels, logistics, drones, and satellite support. U.S. intelligence assessments have similarly found no fixed Chinese timeline or current plan for an attack by 2027. Recent developments center on expanded China Coast Guard patrols and law-enforcement operations east of Taiwan through July and August, alongside routine PLA exercises focused on encirclement and blockade scenarios rather than assault. Purges of senior PLA officers earlier in 2026 have further complicated command readiness. These factors underpin trader consensus that coercive gray-zone pressure remains Beijing's primary near-term approach.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$3,081,068Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense report released August 31, 2026, assessed that the People's Liberation Army continues to lack the full joint capabilities needed for a complex large-scale amphibious invasion, despite accelerated efforts to improve landing vessels, logistics, drones, and satellite support. U.S. intelligence assessments have similarly found no fixed Chinese timeline or current plan for an attack by 2027. Recent developments center on expanded China Coast Guard patrols and law-enforcement operations east of Taiwan through July and August, alongside routine PLA exercises focused on encirclement and blockade scenarios rather than assault. Purges of senior PLA officers earlier in 2026 have further complicated command readiness. These factors underpin trader consensus that coercive gray-zone pressure remains Beijing's primary near-term approach.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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