China’s sustained gray-zone coercion around Taiwan—including reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime surveys—has normalized pressure without crossing into open conflict, while Beijing continues to prioritize lower-risk options such as blockades or political influence over a high-cost amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets exceeding T$1 trillion for 2027, accelerated drone and asymmetric capabilities drawing on Ukraine lessons, and civil-defense exercises, supported by ongoing U.S. arms cooperation and diplomatic engagement. U.S.-China leader meetings in 2026 have coincided with temporary dips in sorties, and assessments indicate no fixed timeline or current plan for invasion by late 2027 amid PLA modernization challenges and deterrence risks. These factors underpin trader consensus that a full-scale attack remains improbable within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
12% вероятность
$3,090,917 Объем
$3,090,917 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
Да
12% вероятность
$3,090,917 Объем
$3,090,917 Объем
31 дек. 2027 г.
Заработай 3.25 %
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s sustained gray-zone coercion around Taiwan—including reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime surveys—has normalized pressure without crossing into open conflict, while Beijing continues to prioritize lower-risk options such as blockades or political influence over a high-cost amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets exceeding T$1 trillion for 2027, accelerated drone and asymmetric capabilities drawing on Ukraine lessons, and civil-defense exercises, supported by ongoing U.S. arms cooperation and diplomatic engagement. U.S.-China leader meetings in 2026 have coincided with temporary dips in sorties, and assessments indicate no fixed timeline or current plan for invasion by late 2027 amid PLA modernization challenges and deterrence risks. These factors underpin trader consensus that a full-scale attack remains improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$3,090,917Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China’s sustained gray-zone coercion around Taiwan—including reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime surveys—has normalized pressure without crossing into open conflict, while Beijing continues to prioritize lower-risk options such as blockades or political influence over a high-cost amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets exceeding T$1 trillion for 2027, accelerated drone and asymmetric capabilities drawing on Ukraine lessons, and civil-defense exercises, supported by ongoing U.S. arms cooperation and diplomatic engagement. U.S.-China leader meetings in 2026 have coincided with temporary dips in sorties, and assessments indicate no fixed timeline or current plan for invasion by late 2027 amid PLA modernization challenges and deterrence risks. These factors underpin trader consensus that a full-scale attack remains improbable within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$3,090,917Дата окончания
1 янв. 2028 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...China’s sustained gray-zone coercion around Taiwan—including reduced but persistent ADIZ incursions, coast guard patrols east of the island, and maritime surveys—has normalized pressure without crossing into open conflict, while Beijing continues to prioritize lower-risk options such as blockades or political influence over a high-cost amphibious assault. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets exceeding T$1 trillion for 2027, accelerated drone and asymmetric capabilities drawing on Ukraine lessons, and civil-defense exercises, supported by ongoing U.S. arms cooperation and diplomatic engagement. U.S.-China leader meetings in 2026 have coincided with temporary dips in sorties, and assessments indicate no fixed timeline or current plan for invasion by late 2027 amid PLA modernization challenges and deterrence risks. These factors underpin trader consensus that a full-scale attack remains improbable within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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