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icon for Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?

Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?

icon for Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?

Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?

Да

22% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Да

22% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 70% reflects the limited pipeline of ultra-high-value consignments expected in the final four months of 2026.** Major auction houses have already delivered record-breaking results earlier in the cycle, including Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* (1948) at $181.2 million in May and Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025. These sales, drawn from exceptional single-owner collections, set new benchmarks for modern and postwar works but have left fewer comparable masterpieces scheduled for the fall season. Recent New York and London evening sales through August have produced strong but lower results, with top lots in the $50–100 million range amid a recovering yet selective market. While November marquee auctions and any late private transactions could still surprise, the absence of confirmed nine-figure offerings at that threshold has shaped trader consensus around the remaining timeline. Historical patterns show such outliers cluster around marquee collections rather than appearing uniformly across the calendar.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$1,395
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".**No at 70% reflects the limited pipeline of ultra-high-value consignments expected in the final four months of 2026.** Major auction houses have already delivered record-breaking results earlier in the cycle, including Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* (1948) at $181.2 million in May and Gustav Klimt’s *Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer* at $236.4 million in November 2025. These sales, drawn from exceptional single-owner collections, set new benchmarks for modern and postwar works but have left fewer comparable masterpieces scheduled for the fall season. Recent New York and London evening sales through August have produced strong but lower results, with top lots in the $50–100 million range amid a recovering yet selective market. While November marquee auctions and any late private transactions could still surprise, the absence of confirmed nine-figure offerings at that threshold has shaped trader consensus around the remaining timeline. Historical patterns show such outliers cluster around marquee collections rather than appearing uniformly across the calendar.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$1,395
Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 2 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Будет ли произведение искусства продано за 150 миллионов долларов к 31 декабря?» с 30%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 30¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 30%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Jun 3, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?», просмотри 2 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?» — «Будет ли произведение искусства продано за 150 миллионов долларов к 31 декабря?» с 30%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 30%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Будет ли произведение искусства продано за $ 150 млн к 31 декабря?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.