The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any parliamentary votes, executive statements, or diplomatic steps toward secession. Persistent internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have delayed cabinet formation following the 2024 regional elections, while renewed revenue-sharing and oil export arrangements with Baghdad through 2025-2026 reinforce coordination with the central government. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has long deemed unilateral secession unconstitutional, and neighboring states continue to oppose any move that could destabilize the region. The KRG has instead emphasized neutrality amid ongoing regional conflicts, including recent impacts from U.S.-Iran tensions, with no indications of shifting priorities toward independence in the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКРГ объявит независимость от Ирака к 31 декабря?
КРГ объявит независимость от Ирака к 31 декабря?
Да
6% вероятность
$272,582 Объем
$272,582 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
Да
6% вероятность
$272,582 Объем
$272,582 Объем
30 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any parliamentary votes, executive statements, or diplomatic steps toward secession. Persistent internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have delayed cabinet formation following the 2024 regional elections, while renewed revenue-sharing and oil export arrangements with Baghdad through 2025-2026 reinforce coordination with the central government. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has long deemed unilateral secession unconstitutional, and neighboring states continue to oppose any move that could destabilize the region. The KRG has instead emphasized neutrality amid ongoing regional conflicts, including recent impacts from U.S.-Iran tensions, with no indications of shifting priorities toward independence in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Объем
$272,582Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any parliamentary votes, executive statements, or diplomatic steps toward secession. Persistent internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have delayed cabinet formation following the 2024 regional elections, while renewed revenue-sharing and oil export arrangements with Baghdad through 2025-2026 reinforce coordination with the central government. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has long deemed unilateral secession unconstitutional, and neighboring states continue to oppose any move that could destabilize the region. The KRG has instead emphasized neutrality amid ongoing regional conflicts, including recent impacts from U.S.-Iran tensions, with no indications of shifting priorities toward independence in the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or a ruling party, coalition, or executive official of the KRG, formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iraq and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iraqi governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iraq as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$272,582Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 1, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 93.8% trader consensus against a KRG independence declaration by December 31, 2026, reflects the absence of any parliamentary votes, executive statements, or diplomatic steps toward secession. Persistent internal divisions between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have delayed cabinet formation following the 2024 regional elections, while renewed revenue-sharing and oil export arrangements with Baghdad through 2025-2026 reinforce coordination with the central government. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court has long deemed unilateral secession unconstitutional, and neighboring states continue to oppose any move that could destabilize the region. The KRG has instead emphasized neutrality amid ongoing regional conflicts, including recent impacts from U.S.-Iran tensions, with no indications of shifting priorities toward independence in the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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