Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years as prime minister and shifting his status to opposition leader. Subsequent investigations into alleged Orbán-era procurement irregularities, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to the National Cultural Fund and probes over a seized Ukrainian cash shipment, have produced charges against associates and officials but no detention of Orbán himself. A lawyer’s June motion seeking his arrest in the convoy matter relied on public reports and has not advanced to formal action. With Orbán outside government and legal processes typically requiring formal indictments or parliamentary steps before any detention, traders assign only a slim implied probability to arrest occurring before the December 31 deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
11% вероятность
$34,923 Объем
$34,923 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
$34,923 Объем
$34,923 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years as prime minister and shifting his status to opposition leader. Subsequent investigations into alleged Orbán-era procurement irregularities, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to the National Cultural Fund and probes over a seized Ukrainian cash shipment, have produced charges against associates and officials but no detention of Orbán himself. A lawyer’s June motion seeking his arrest in the convoy matter relied on public reports and has not advanced to formal action. With Orbán outside government and legal processes typically requiring formal indictments or parliamentary steps before any detention, traders assign only a slim implied probability to arrest occurring before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Объем
$34,923Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years as prime minister and shifting his status to opposition leader. Subsequent investigations into alleged Orbán-era procurement irregularities, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to the National Cultural Fund and probes over a seized Ukrainian cash shipment, have produced charges against associates and officials but no detention of Orbán himself. A lawyer’s June motion seeking his arrest in the convoy matter relied on public reports and has not advanced to formal action. With Orbán outside government and legal processes typically requiring formal indictments or parliamentary steps before any detention, traders assign only a slim implied probability to arrest occurring before the December 31 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$34,923Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years as prime minister and shifting his status to opposition leader. Subsequent investigations into alleged Orbán-era procurement irregularities, including raids on Fidesz-linked servers tied to the National Cultural Fund and probes over a seized Ukrainian cash shipment, have produced charges against associates and officials but no detention of Orbán himself. A lawyer’s June motion seeking his arrest in the convoy matter relied on public reports and has not advanced to formal action. With Orbán outside government and legal processes typically requiring formal indictments or parliamentary steps before any detention, traders assign only a slim implied probability to arrest occurring before the December 31 deadline.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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