The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with no such detonations recorded in over three decades. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets has centered on October 2025 statements by President Trump directing preparations for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, which briefly elevated implied probabilities before official clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities. Subsequent Russian and Chinese responses, including calls for their own testing proposals, alongside congressional efforts to require legislative approval for any resumption, have reinforced the low likelihood of a U.S. explosive test. Key variables include New START expiration in 2026, ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, and any further executive or diplomatic developments that could alter testing policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$668,735 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
30 июня 2026 года
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
10%
$668,735 Объем
30 июня 2026 года
$40,888 Объем
1%
30 сентября 2026 года
$7,044 Объем
5%
31 декабря 2026 года
$10,584 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with no such detonations recorded in over three decades. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets has centered on October 2025 statements by President Trump directing preparations for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, which briefly elevated implied probabilities before official clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities. Subsequent Russian and Chinese responses, including calls for their own testing proposals, alongside congressional efforts to require legislative approval for any resumption, have reinforced the low likelihood of a U.S. explosive test. Key variables include New START expiration in 2026, ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, and any further executive or diplomatic developments that could alter testing policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$668,735Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with no such detonations recorded in over three decades. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets has centered on October 2025 statements by President Trump directing preparations for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, which briefly elevated implied probabilities before official clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities. Subsequent Russian and Chinese responses, including calls for their own testing proposals, alongside congressional efforts to require legislative approval for any resumption, have reinforced the low likelihood of a U.S. explosive test. Key variables include New START expiration in 2026, ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, and any further executive or diplomatic developments that could alter testing policy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$668,735Дата окончания
31 мар. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, with no such detonations recorded in over three decades. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets has centered on October 2025 statements by President Trump directing preparations for testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, which briefly elevated implied probabilities before official clarifications from the Department of Energy emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities. Subsequent Russian and Chinese responses, including calls for their own testing proposals, alongside congressional efforts to require legislative approval for any resumption, have reinforced the low likelihood of a U.S. explosive test. Key variables include New START expiration in 2026, ongoing stockpile stewardship programs, and any further executive or diplomatic developments that could alter testing policy.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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