Ongoing hostilities, stalled bilateral and trilateral negotiations, and Ukraine’s extension of martial law continue to block any pathway to a ratified peace agreement. Russian demands for territorial concessions remain maximalist, while Ukrainian public opinion and constitutional rules tie any major territorial or security compromise to a nationwide referendum that cannot occur until after martial law lifts and a ceasefire is in place. Recent reports indicate little prospect of renewed substantive talks before 2027, with active combat and failed short-term truces reinforcing the impasse. Traders price the outcome accordingly because the compressed window to the end of 2026 leaves insufficient time for the sequence of diplomatic breakthroughs, parliamentary action, and voting logistics required. A sudden ceasefire coupled with rapid agreement on terms could still shift probabilities before the cutoff.