Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces a near-certain "No" outcome on arrest by year-end because she maintains a low public profile with no documented involvement in criminal activity, regulatory violations, or high-profile disputes that typically trigger enforcement actions. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible reports, filings, or investigations linking her to events warranting detention, consistent with historical patterns for private individuals outside tech leadership or platform governance roles. While the 96% probability accounts for this baseline stability, remote catalysts such as an unexpected data breach, subpoena-related compliance issue, or international regulatory scrutiny on family office activities could theoretically shift sentiment if verified through official channels before December 31. No recent announcements or developments have altered these dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоФиби Гейтс арестована до 31 декабря?
Фиби Гейтс арестована до 31 декабря?
Да
5% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces a near-certain "No" outcome on arrest by year-end because she maintains a low public profile with no documented involvement in criminal activity, regulatory violations, or high-profile disputes that typically trigger enforcement actions. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible reports, filings, or investigations linking her to events warranting detention, consistent with historical patterns for private individuals outside tech leadership or platform governance roles. While the 96% probability accounts for this baseline stability, remote catalysts such as an unexpected data breach, subpoena-related compliance issue, or international regulatory scrutiny on family office activities could theoretically shift sentiment if verified through official channels before December 31. No recent announcements or developments have altered these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Объем
$21Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces a near-certain "No" outcome on arrest by year-end because she maintains a low public profile with no documented involvement in criminal activity, regulatory violations, or high-profile disputes that typically trigger enforcement actions. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible reports, filings, or investigations linking her to events warranting detention, consistent with historical patterns for private individuals outside tech leadership or platform governance roles. While the 96% probability accounts for this baseline stability, remote catalysts such as an unexpected data breach, subpoena-related compliance issue, or international regulatory scrutiny on family office activities could theoretically shift sentiment if verified through official channels before December 31. No recent announcements or developments have altered these dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$21Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Phoebe Gates, daughter of Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates, faces a near-certain "No" outcome on arrest by year-end because she maintains a low public profile with no documented involvement in criminal activity, regulatory violations, or high-profile disputes that typically trigger enforcement actions. Trader consensus reflects the absence of credible reports, filings, or investigations linking her to events warranting detention, consistent with historical patterns for private individuals outside tech leadership or platform governance roles. While the 96% probability accounts for this baseline stability, remote catalysts such as an unexpected data breach, subpoena-related compliance issue, or international regulatory scrutiny on family office activities could theoretically shift sentiment if verified through official channels before December 31. No recent announcements or developments have altered these dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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