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icon for Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса
Политика·Выборы в США

Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса

icon for Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса
Политика·Выборы в США

Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса

Марки 40%+ 45%

Марки 15–20% 45%

Марки 5–10% 43%

Марки 20–25% 36%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ

Марки 40%+ 45%

Марки 15–20% 45%

Марки 5–10% 43%

Марки 20–25% 36%

Polymarket
НОВОЕ
icon for Марки 40%+

Марки 40%+

$16 Объем

45%

icon for Марки 35–40%

Марки 35–40%

$16 Объем

20%

icon for Марки 30–35%

Марки 30–35%

$16 Объем

27%

icon for Марки 25–30%

Марки 25–30%

$23 Объем

35%

icon for Марки 20–25%

Марки 20–25%

$16 Объем

36%

icon for Марки 15–20%

Марки 15–20%

$16 Объем

45%

icon for Марки 10–15%

Марки 10–15%

$16 Объем

26%

icon for Марки 5–10%

Марки 5–10%

$16 Объем

43%

icon for Марки <5%

Марки <5%

$16 Объем

22%

icon for Моултон <5%

Моултон <5%

$16 Объем

19%

icon for Моултон 5%+

Моултон 5%+

$101 Объем

5%

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$268
Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from mid-August, including Suffolk University/Boston Globe and UMass Amherst surveys, shows incumbent Sen. Ed Markey widening his lead over Rep. Seth Moulton to double digits among likely Democratic primary voters ahead of the Sept. 1 contest, with Markey at 52-60% support versus Moulton’s 32-38%. This shift from tighter June and July results has reinforced trader expectations of a Markey victory, concentrating probabilities on his margin-of-victory ranges while elevating “Other” as the top outcome amid uncertainty over turnout, undecided voters, and exact spread. Markey’s advantages among progressives, women, and liberals, combined with his long record and higher trust ratings on key issues, have limited Moulton’s generational-change messaging despite debates and advertising. The race’s resolution hinges on final voter mobilization in the coming days.

The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$268
Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 PM ET

Источник определения исхода

https://www.sec.state.ma.us/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Massachusetts state primary is scheduled to be held on September 1, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Massachusetts Democratic Primary for U.S. Senator. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, such as official statewide results published by the Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth (https://www.sec.state.ma.us/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Связанные

icon for Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Сенат Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 35%-40%?

Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах в Сенат Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 35%-40%?

20%
Да
icon for Выиграет ли Абдул Эль-Сайед праймериз Демократической партии в Сенат штата Мичиган с отрывом менее 5%?

Выиграет ли Абдул Эль-Сайед праймериз Демократической партии в Сенат штата Мичиган с отрывом менее 5%?

100%
Да
icon for Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 25%-30%?

Победит ли кандидат от Демократической партии на выборах губернатора Массачусетса в 2026 году с разницей в 25%-30%?

21%
Да

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 11 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Марки 40%+» с 46%, за ним следует «Марки 15–20%» с 45%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 46¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен Aug 20, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

Чтобы торговать на «Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса», просмотри 11 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса» — «Марки 40%+» с 46%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 46%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Марки 15–20%» с 45%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Первичная маржа победы демократического сената Массачусетса» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.