The competitive 2026 Maine Senate race between incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson remains the central driver of trader sentiment on first-round turnout. Recent polling shows a narrow Jackson lead or statistical tie among likely voters, reflecting the state's partisan lean and Jackson's late selection via party convention after the prior nominee's withdrawal. High historical midterm participation rates, combined with mobilization around issues such as abortion rights and labor priorities, support expectations for solid but not exceptional overall volume. The tight clustering of outcome probabilities around mid-range brackets underscores uncertainty over how much the contest's visibility and ranked-choice voting mechanics will boost participation relative to baseline eligible-voter trends. Late-cycle developments including candidate events, endorsements, or weather could widen separation by altering turnout among independents and key demographic groups.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено600К–650К 44%
650К-700К 44%
850К-900К 44%
800 000–850 000 43%
<600 тыс.
42%
600К–650К
44%
650К-700К
44%
700К-750К
42%
750К–800К
43%
800 000–850 000
43%
850К-900К
44%
900 000+
43%
600К–650К 44%
650К-700К 44%
850К-900К 44%
800 000–850 000 43%
<600 тыс.
42%
600К–650К
44%
650К-700К
44%
700К-750К
42%
750К–800К
43%
800 000–850 000
43%
850К-900К
44%
900 000+
43%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The competitive 2026 Maine Senate race between incumbent Republican Susan Collins and Democratic nominee Troy Jackson remains the central driver of trader sentiment on first-round turnout. Recent polling shows a narrow Jackson lead or statistical tie among likely voters, reflecting the state's partisan lean and Jackson's late selection via party convention after the prior nominee's withdrawal. High historical midterm participation rates, combined with mobilization around issues such as abortion rights and labor priorities, support expectations for solid but not exceptional overall volume. The tight clustering of outcome probabilities around mid-range brackets underscores uncertainty over how much the contest's visibility and ranked-choice voting mechanics will boost participation relative to baseline eligible-voter trends. Late-cycle developments including candidate events, endorsements, or weather could widen separation by altering turnout among independents and key demographic groups.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на выборах сенатора от Массачусетса в промежуточных выборах 2026 года, находиться в диапазоне от 2 350 000 до 2 500 000?
Будет ли общее количество поданных голосов на промежуточных выборах 2026 года за сенатора от Орегона находиться в диапазоне от 1 600 000 до 1 700 000?
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на промежуточных выборах 2026 года за сенатора от Мичигана, меньше 4 200 000?
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