**Latest ensemble forecasts from global models indicate Cape Town will likely see a minimum temperature near 12–14°C on September 19 under clear skies and moderate southeasterly flow.** This setup favors modest radiative cooling overnight, with dew points and wind speeds limiting further drops below the seasonal average. Recent observations show the region running 2–3°C above the September climatological minimum, consistent with persistent high pressure and dry air. Traders’ closely matched probabilities around 49–50% across bins reflect genuine forecast uncertainty in the precise overnight low, as small shifts in cloud cover, wind direction, or model bias could alter the final reading by 1–2°C. The next high-resolution runs and South African Weather Service updates ahead of the 24-hour window will be the key catalysts for any repricing.