**The August 17 GitHub outage, lasting 7 hours and 47 minutes and disrupting authentication, Actions, APIs, pull requests, issues, and Copilot, has established the current benchmark for the month.** This incident, triggered by a traffic peak overwhelming an Istio sidecar in the Central US data center due to a misconfigured autoscaling policy that ignored concurrency limits, produced error rates up to 50% before recovery. A latent VS Code retry bug further extended Copilot Token Service downtime. With only one prior August incident (Actions on August 6) and no longer disruptions reported through August 23 despite ongoing platform growth—monthly commits having doubled since April—traders view 6-12 hours as the most probable duration for the longest critical incident. Upcoming resolution depends on whether additional capacity-related failures emerge before month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамый длинный критический инцидент на GitHub в августе?
Самый длинный критический инцидент на GitHub в августе?
6–12 часов 86%
12+ часов 11%
<1 часа 1.3%
1–3 часа <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
<1 часа
1%
1–3 часа
1%
3-6 часов
<1%
6–12 часов
86%
12+ часов
11%
6–12 часов 86%
12+ часов 11%
<1 часа 1.3%
1–3 часа <1%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
<1 часа
$674 Объем
1%
1–3 часа
$285 Объем
1%
3-6 часов
$227 Объем
<1%
6–12 часов
$2,706 Объем
86%
12+ часов
$807 Объем
11%
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The August 17 GitHub outage, lasting 7 hours and 47 minutes and disrupting authentication, Actions, APIs, pull requests, issues, and Copilot, has established the current benchmark for the month.** This incident, triggered by a traffic peak overwhelming an Istio sidecar in the Central US data center due to a misconfigured autoscaling policy that ignored concurrency limits, produced error rates up to 50% before recovery. A latent VS Code retry bug further extended Copilot Token Service downtime. With only one prior August incident (Actions on August 6) and no longer disruptions reported through August 23 despite ongoing platform growth—monthly commits having doubled since April—traders view 6-12 hours as the most probable duration for the longest critical incident. Upcoming resolution depends on whether additional capacity-related failures emerge before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ET
Объем
$4,700Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The August 17 GitHub outage, lasting 7 hours and 47 minutes and disrupting authentication, Actions, APIs, pull requests, issues, and Copilot, has established the current benchmark for the month.** This incident, triggered by a traffic peak overwhelming an Istio sidecar in the Central US data center due to a misconfigured autoscaling policy that ignored concurrency limits, produced error rates up to 50% before recovery. A latent VS Code retry bug further extended Copilot Token Service downtime. With only one prior August incident (Actions on August 6) and no longer disruptions reported through August 23 despite ongoing platform growth—monthly commits having doubled since April—traders view 6-12 hours as the most probable duration for the longest critical incident. Upcoming resolution depends on whether additional capacity-related failures emerge before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,700Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**The August 17 GitHub outage, lasting 7 hours and 47 minutes and disrupting authentication, Actions, APIs, pull requests, issues, and Copilot, has established the current benchmark for the month.** This incident, triggered by a traffic peak overwhelming an Istio sidecar in the Central US data center due to a misconfigured autoscaling policy that ignored concurrency limits, produced error rates up to 50% before recovery. A latent VS Code retry bug further extended Copilot Token Service downtime. With only one prior August incident (Actions on August 6) and no longer disruptions reported through August 23 despite ongoing platform growth—monthly commits having doubled since April—traders view 6-12 hours as the most probable duration for the longest critical incident. Upcoming resolution depends on whether additional capacity-related failures emerge before month-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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