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Политика·Европа

Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы

icon for Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы
Политика·Европа

Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы

Нет 3–6% 99.4%

Нет <3% 1.2%

Нет 9–12% 1.2%

Да 9–12% <1%

Polymarket

$16,834 Объем

Нет 3–6% 99.4%

Нет <3% 1.2%

Нет 9–12% 1.2%

Да 9–12% <1%

Polymarket

$16,834 Объем

Да, 15%+

$827 Объем

1%

Да 12–15%

$323 Объем

1%

Да 9–12%

$2,594 Объем

1%

Да 6–9%

$315 Объем

1%

Да 3–6%

$1,117 Объем

1%

Да <3%

$382 Объем

1%

Нет <3%

$3,391 Объем

1%

Нет 3–6%

$1,284 Объем

99%

Нет 6–9%

$424 Объем

1%

Нет 9–12%

$355 Объем

1%

Нет 12–15%

$297 Объем

1%

Нет 15%+

$5,525 Объем

1%

The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.

The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Объем
$16,834
Дата окончания
29 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations produced a narrow "No" victory of roughly five percentage points, aligning with the market's dominant 96% probability on a 3–6% margin for rejection. Rural constituencies, where fishing rights and national sovereignty concerns dominated debate, delivered decisive opposition exceeding 60% in several districts, offsetting stronger "Yes" support in Reykjavík. Late polling showed a near-tie before rural turnout confirmed the outcome, consistent with historical patterns of geographic divides on EU-related questions. Final certified results and any procedural reviews remain the only realistic paths to a different margin classification.

The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Объем
$16,834
Дата окончания
29 авг. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET

Кто определяет исход

0x69c47De9D...
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.” The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Связанные

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Референдум по переговорам о вступлении Исландии в Европейский союз принят?

<1%
Да
icon for Победит ли Мэри Пелтола на праймериз в Сенат Аляски с разницей 6–9%?

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97%
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Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?

67%

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 12 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Нет 3–6%» с 99%, за ним следует «Да, 15%+» с 1%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 99¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 99%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $16.8K с момента запуска рынка Aug 27, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы», просмотри 12 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы» — «Нет 3–6%» с 99%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 99%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Да, 15%+» с 1%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Референдум в Исландии о выходе из ЕС: предел победы» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.