Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small strategic outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz used for maritime observation. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal radars, missile sites, and IRGC vessels, along with Iranian responses targeting shipping, have centered on navigation rules, traffic separation schemes, and potential transit fees rather than any contest over island ownership or occupation. Ongoing diplomacy with Oman seeks arrangements for commercial corridors and mine-clearing but has produced no shift in territorial control. US naval escorts have enabled alternative routes closer to Oman, reducing Iranian enforcement leverage in parts of the waterway, yet Iranian officials continue to assert decisive authority over movements. No credible reporting indicates foreign forces approaching or challenging the island itself.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Ормуз больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Ормуз больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$64,015 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
1%
$64,015 Объем
31 августа
$52,278 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small strategic outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz used for maritime observation. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal radars, missile sites, and IRGC vessels, along with Iranian responses targeting shipping, have centered on navigation rules, traffic separation schemes, and potential transit fees rather than any contest over island ownership or occupation. Ongoing diplomacy with Oman seeks arrangements for commercial corridors and mine-clearing but has produced no shift in territorial control. US naval escorts have enabled alternative routes closer to Oman, reducing Iranian enforcement leverage in parts of the waterway, yet Iranian officials continue to assert decisive authority over movements. No credible reporting indicates foreign forces approaching or challenging the island itself.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Объем
$64,015Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small strategic outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz used for maritime observation. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal radars, missile sites, and IRGC vessels, along with Iranian responses targeting shipping, have centered on navigation rules, traffic separation schemes, and potential transit fees rather than any contest over island ownership or occupation. Ongoing diplomacy with Oman seeks arrangements for commercial corridors and mine-clearing but has produced no shift in territorial control. US naval escorts have enabled alternative routes closer to Oman, reducing Iranian enforcement leverage in parts of the waterway, yet Iranian officials continue to assert decisive authority over movements. No credible reporting indicates foreign forces approaching or challenging the island itself.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$64,015Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains full sovereignty over Hormuz Island, a small strategic outpost at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz used for maritime observation. Recent US-Iran military exchanges, including strikes on coastal radars, missile sites, and IRGC vessels, along with Iranian responses targeting shipping, have centered on navigation rules, traffic separation schemes, and potential transit fees rather than any contest over island ownership or occupation. Ongoing diplomacy with Oman seeks arrangements for commercial corridors and mine-clearing but has produced no shift in territorial control. US naval escorts have enabled alternative routes closer to Oman, reducing Iranian enforcement leverage in parts of the waterway, yet Iranian officials continue to assert decisive authority over movements. No credible reporting indicates foreign forces approaching or challenging the island itself.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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