US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites, coastal defenses, and storage facilities on Greater Tunb as part of efforts to reduce threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet Iranian forces retained operational control and have since deployed additional missile systems on the island and neighboring disputed territories. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, supported by recent GCC statements, while Iran insists the islands form an inseparable part of its territory administered from Hormozgan province. Trade suspension between the UAE and Iran in August amid renewed tensions has heightened diplomatic friction without producing any shift in physical control. Trader assessments of a near-term change in administration therefore reflect the significant military and political barriers to altering the status quo established since 1971.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Большой Томб больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Большой Томб больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$52,985 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
<1%
$52,985 Объем
31 августа
$30,476 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites, coastal defenses, and storage facilities on Greater Tunb as part of efforts to reduce threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet Iranian forces retained operational control and have since deployed additional missile systems on the island and neighboring disputed territories. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, supported by recent GCC statements, while Iran insists the islands form an inseparable part of its territory administered from Hormozgan province. Trade suspension between the UAE and Iran in August amid renewed tensions has heightened diplomatic friction without producing any shift in physical control. Trader assessments of a near-term change in administration therefore reflect the significant military and political barriers to altering the status quo established since 1971.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Объем
$52,985Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites, coastal defenses, and storage facilities on Greater Tunb as part of efforts to reduce threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet Iranian forces retained operational control and have since deployed additional missile systems on the island and neighboring disputed territories. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, supported by recent GCC statements, while Iran insists the islands form an inseparable part of its territory administered from Hormozgan province. Trade suspension between the UAE and Iran in August amid renewed tensions has heightened diplomatic friction without producing any shift in physical control. Trader assessments of a near-term change in administration therefore reflect the significant military and political barriers to altering the status quo established since 1971.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$52,985Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian missile launch sites, coastal defenses, and storage facilities on Greater Tunb as part of efforts to reduce threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, yet Iranian forces retained operational control and have since deployed additional missile systems on the island and neighboring disputed territories. The UAE maintains its longstanding sovereignty claim, supported by recent GCC statements, while Iran insists the islands form an inseparable part of its territory administered from Hormozgan province. Trade suspension between the UAE and Iran in August amid renewed tensions has heightened diplomatic friction without producing any shift in physical control. Trader assessments of a near-term change in administration therefore reflect the significant military and political barriers to altering the status quo established since 1971.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы