US strikes on Iranian military sites across Gulf islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, Kharg, and Larak have intensified since mid-2026 amid broader US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, yet no reports indicate territorial seizure, occupation by another state, or loss of Iranian governmental or military authority over any listed island. Farsi Island remains a minor IRGC Navy outpost with no confirmed targeting in recent operations, while Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational control from multiple coastal and island positions. Trader consensus reflected in low Yes probabilities for August 31 and September 30 resolution dates aligns with the absence of ground-force deployments or diplomatic arrangements that would trigger a control change, though sustained escalation or new maritime actions could introduce limited uncertainty within the market window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Фарси больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$174,582 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
<1%
$174,582 Объем
31 августа
$165,689 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Iranian military sites across Gulf islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, Kharg, and Larak have intensified since mid-2026 amid broader US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, yet no reports indicate territorial seizure, occupation by another state, or loss of Iranian governmental or military authority over any listed island. Farsi Island remains a minor IRGC Navy outpost with no confirmed targeting in recent operations, while Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational control from multiple coastal and island positions. Trader consensus reflected in low Yes probabilities for August 31 and September 30 resolution dates aligns with the absence of ground-force deployments or diplomatic arrangements that would trigger a control change, though sustained escalation or new maritime actions could introduce limited uncertainty within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Объем
$174,582Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US strikes on Iranian military sites across Gulf islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, Kharg, and Larak have intensified since mid-2026 amid broader US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, yet no reports indicate territorial seizure, occupation by another state, or loss of Iranian governmental or military authority over any listed island. Farsi Island remains a minor IRGC Navy outpost with no confirmed targeting in recent operations, while Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational control from multiple coastal and island positions. Trader consensus reflected in low Yes probabilities for August 31 and September 30 resolution dates aligns with the absence of ground-force deployments or diplomatic arrangements that would trigger a control change, though sustained escalation or new maritime actions could introduce limited uncertainty within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$174,582Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US strikes on Iranian military sites across Gulf islands including Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, Kharg, and Larak have intensified since mid-2026 amid broader US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, yet no reports indicate territorial seizure, occupation by another state, or loss of Iranian governmental or military authority over any listed island. Farsi Island remains a minor IRGC Navy outpost with no confirmed targeting in recent operations, while Iranian officials continue to assert full sovereignty and operational control from multiple coastal and island positions. Trader consensus reflected in low Yes probabilities for August 31 and September 30 resolution dates aligns with the absence of ground-force deployments or diplomatic arrangements that would trigger a control change, though sustained escalation or new maritime actions could introduce limited uncertainty within the market window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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