Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have elevated risks to Iranian control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of crude shipments, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi. U.S. strikes in March and July 2026 targeted military sites on Kharg and nearby islands while sparing export infrastructure, yet repeated disruptions halted loadings for weeks, with partial reactivation of the western terminal noted only in mid-August amid ongoing blockade disputes. Oil market participants price in supply volatility through elevated risk premiums on Brent and tanker rates, as any loss of Iranian sovereignty would immediately constrain exports and threaten one-fifth of global seaborne oil transit. Diplomatic efforts with Oman for a temporary corridor continue without resolution, leaving trader sentiment sensitive to further U.S. policy signals or Iranian countermeasures that could alter control dynamics before key deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$111,814 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
August 31
1%
September 30
2%
$111,814 Объем
August 31
$39,965 Объем
1%
September 30
$71,849 Объем
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have elevated risks to Iranian control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of crude shipments, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi. U.S. strikes in March and July 2026 targeted military sites on Kharg and nearby islands while sparing export infrastructure, yet repeated disruptions halted loadings for weeks, with partial reactivation of the western terminal noted only in mid-August amid ongoing blockade disputes. Oil market participants price in supply volatility through elevated risk premiums on Brent and tanker rates, as any loss of Iranian sovereignty would immediately constrain exports and threaten one-fifth of global seaborne oil transit. Diplomatic efforts with Oman for a temporary corridor continue without resolution, leaving trader sentiment sensitive to further U.S. policy signals or Iranian countermeasures that could alter control dynamics before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Объем
$111,814Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have elevated risks to Iranian control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of crude shipments, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi. U.S. strikes in March and July 2026 targeted military sites on Kharg and nearby islands while sparing export infrastructure, yet repeated disruptions halted loadings for weeks, with partial reactivation of the western terminal noted only in mid-August amid ongoing blockade disputes. Oil market participants price in supply volatility through elevated risk premiums on Brent and tanker rates, as any loss of Iranian sovereignty would immediately constrain exports and threaten one-fifth of global seaborne oil transit. Diplomatic efforts with Oman for a temporary corridor continue without resolution, leaving trader sentiment sensitive to further U.S. policy signals or Iranian countermeasures that could alter control dynamics before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$111,814Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz have elevated risks to Iranian control of Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal handling roughly 90% of crude shipments, alongside Hormuz, Hengam, and Farsi. U.S. strikes in March and July 2026 targeted military sites on Kharg and nearby islands while sparing export infrastructure, yet repeated disruptions halted loadings for weeks, with partial reactivation of the western terminal noted only in mid-August amid ongoing blockade disputes. Oil market participants price in supply volatility through elevated risk premiums on Brent and tanker rates, as any loss of Iranian sovereignty would immediately constrain exports and threaten one-fifth of global seaborne oil transit. Diplomatic efforts with Oman for a temporary corridor continue without resolution, leaving trader sentiment sensitive to further U.S. policy signals or Iranian countermeasures that could alter control dynamics before key deadlines.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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