California's 2026 gubernatorial general election features Democrat Xavier Becerra facing Republican Steve Hilton in a race widely viewed as noncompetitive, with polling showing Becerra ahead by roughly 20 points. This dynamic typically reduces voter mobilization and enthusiasm compared to tighter contests. Historical turnout provides key context: the 2022 gubernatorial election drew about 11.1 million votes at a 42.9% rate among registered voters, while the 2024 presidential contest reached over 16 million. The June 2026 primary saw notably low participation, consistent with patterns in off-year or low-salience races. Expanded mail voting and registration levels near 23 million could support mid-range totals, yet limited campaign intensity and the absence of high-profile national stakes keep probabilities clustered around 10.5–14 million votes. Recent polling and early indicators show no major shifts capable of driving exceptional mobilization or further suppression before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено14,5 млн+ 43%
11,5М–12М 41%
13,5–14 млн 39%
13М–13,5М 39%
<10,5 млн
35%
10,5–11 млн
37%
11М–11,5М
34%
11,5М–12М
41%
12–12,5 млн
37%
12,5–13 млн
37%
13М–13,5М
39%
13,5–14 млн
39%
14M-14.5M
36%
14,5 млн+
43%
14,5 млн+ 43%
11,5М–12М 41%
13,5–14 млн 39%
13М–13,5М 39%
<10,5 млн
35%
10,5–11 млн
37%
11М–11,5М
34%
11,5М–12М
41%
12–12,5 млн
37%
12,5–13 млн
37%
13М–13,5М
39%
13,5–14 млн
39%
14M-14.5M
36%
14,5 млн+
43%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Aug 18, 2026, 10:07 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...California's 2026 gubernatorial general election features Democrat Xavier Becerra facing Republican Steve Hilton in a race widely viewed as noncompetitive, with polling showing Becerra ahead by roughly 20 points. This dynamic typically reduces voter mobilization and enthusiasm compared to tighter contests. Historical turnout provides key context: the 2022 gubernatorial election drew about 11.1 million votes at a 42.9% rate among registered voters, while the 2024 presidential contest reached over 16 million. The June 2026 primary saw notably low participation, consistent with patterns in off-year or low-salience races. Expanded mail voting and registration levels near 23 million could support mid-range totals, yet limited campaign intensity and the absence of high-profile national stakes keep probabilities clustered around 10.5–14 million votes. Recent polling and early indicators show no major shifts capable of driving exceptional mobilization or further suppression before November 3.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на выборах губернатора Невады в промежуточных выборах 2026 года, находиться в диапазоне от 1 200 000 до 1 275 000?
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на выборах губернатора Аризоны в 2026 году, находиться в диапазоне от 2 000 000 до 2 150 000?
Будет ли общее количество голосов, поданных на промежуточных выборах 2026 года за губернатора Пенсильвании, в диапазоне от 5 500 000 до 6 000 000?
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