Apple's decision to pause development on a full next-generation Vision Pro headset, prioritizing AI smart glasses instead, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May 2026 confirms the company has shelved major redesign work, with no new head-mounted devices expected in 2026 per supply-chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh maintained the existing form factor without qualifying as a true successor. Traders cite typical Apple hardware cycles and the shift to lighter AR glasses as key factors. A surprise WWDC 2026 reveal or accelerated timeline could still shift odds, though credible sources indicate at least a 2028 target.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоApple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Apple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause development on a full next-generation Vision Pro headset, prioritizing AI smart glasses instead, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May 2026 confirms the company has shelved major redesign work, with no new head-mounted devices expected in 2026 per supply-chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh maintained the existing form factor without qualifying as a true successor. Traders cite typical Apple hardware cycles and the shift to lighter AR glasses as key factors. A surprise WWDC 2026 reveal or accelerated timeline could still shift odds, though credible sources indicate at least a 2028 target.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$4,640Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to pause development on a full next-generation Vision Pro headset, prioritizing AI smart glasses instead, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May 2026 confirms the company has shelved major redesign work, with no new head-mounted devices expected in 2026 per supply-chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh maintained the existing form factor without qualifying as a true successor. Traders cite typical Apple hardware cycles and the shift to lighter AR glasses as key factors. A surprise WWDC 2026 reveal or accelerated timeline could still shift odds, though credible sources indicate at least a 2028 target.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,640Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's decision to pause development on a full next-generation Vision Pro headset, prioritizing AI smart glasses instead, underpins the 94% market-implied probability against a release before 2027. Bloomberg reporting from May 2026 confirms the company has shelved major redesign work, with no new head-mounted devices expected in 2026 per supply-chain analysts like Ming-Chi Kuo. The October 2025 M5 chip refresh maintained the existing form factor without qualifying as a true successor. Traders cite typical Apple hardware cycles and the shift to lighter AR glasses as key factors. A surprise WWDC 2026 reveal or accelerated timeline could still shift odds, though credible sources indicate at least a 2028 target.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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