Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the 93.5% market-implied probability that no Vision Pro 2 ships before 2027. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman confirmed in May 2026 that the planned next-generation model remains at least two years away, with active development paused after a minor M5 chip refresh of the original headset launched in late 2025. Supply-chain analysts and multiple outlets now align on a 2028–2029 window, reflecting Apple's prioritization of other hardware categories and the high bar for a meaningful redesign. While timelines in mixed-reality hardware have slipped before, only an unexpected acceleration or reclassification of a minor update could realistically alter the current trader consensus before year-end 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоApple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Apple Vision Pro 2 выпущен до 2027 года?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the 93.5% market-implied probability that no Vision Pro 2 ships before 2027. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman confirmed in May 2026 that the planned next-generation model remains at least two years away, with active development paused after a minor M5 chip refresh of the original headset launched in late 2025. Supply-chain analysts and multiple outlets now align on a 2028–2029 window, reflecting Apple's prioritization of other hardware categories and the high bar for a meaningful redesign. While timelines in mixed-reality hardware have slipped before, only an unexpected acceleration or reclassification of a minor update could realistically alter the current trader consensus before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$5,790Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the 93.5% market-implied probability that no Vision Pro 2 ships before 2027. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman confirmed in May 2026 that the planned next-generation model remains at least two years away, with active development paused after a minor M5 chip refresh of the original headset launched in late 2025. Supply-chain analysts and multiple outlets now align on a 2028–2029 window, reflecting Apple's prioritization of other hardware categories and the high bar for a meaningful redesign. While timelines in mixed-reality hardware have slipped before, only an unexpected acceleration or reclassification of a minor update could realistically alter the current trader consensus before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$5,790Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's decision to shelve a true Vision Pro successor in favor of lighter AI smart glasses has driven the 93.5% market-implied probability that no Vision Pro 2 ships before 2027. Bloomberg reporter Mark Gurman confirmed in May 2026 that the planned next-generation model remains at least two years away, with active development paused after a minor M5 chip refresh of the original headset launched in late 2025. Supply-chain analysts and multiple outlets now align on a 2028–2029 window, reflecting Apple's prioritization of other hardware categories and the high bar for a meaningful redesign. While timelines in mixed-reality hardware have slipped before, only an unexpected acceleration or reclassification of a minor update could realistically alter the current trader consensus before year-end 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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