**US military strikes on Iranian positions at Abu Musa and the Tunb islands in July 2026 targeted missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has responded with volunteer mobilizations, additional missile deployments, and leadership changes reinforcing defensive readiness around the islands it has held since 1971 amid the longstanding UAE sovereignty dispute. No ground operations, occupation, or handover have occurred. As the August 31, 2026 resolution date approaches, trader pricing reflects the absence of any development capable of shifting primary governmental or military authority away from Tehran in the remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОстров Абу-Муса больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
Остров Абу-Муса больше не находится под контролем Ирана...?
$88,876 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
1%
$88,876 Объем
31 августа
$82,208 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes on Iranian positions at Abu Musa and the Tunb islands in July 2026 targeted missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has responded with volunteer mobilizations, additional missile deployments, and leadership changes reinforcing defensive readiness around the islands it has held since 1971 amid the longstanding UAE sovereignty dispute. No ground operations, occupation, or handover have occurred. As the August 31, 2026 resolution date approaches, trader pricing reflects the absence of any development capable of shifting primary governmental or military authority away from Tehran in the remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ET
Объем
$88,876Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.**US military strikes on Iranian positions at Abu Musa and the Tunb islands in July 2026 targeted missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has responded with volunteer mobilizations, additional missile deployments, and leadership changes reinforcing defensive readiness around the islands it has held since 1971 amid the longstanding UAE sovereignty dispute. No ground operations, occupation, or handover have occurred. As the August 31, 2026 resolution date approaches, trader pricing reflects the absence of any development capable of shifting primary governmental or military authority away from Tehran in the remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abu Musa Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Abu Musa Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Abu Musa Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$88,876Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 20, 2026, 9:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US military strikes on Iranian positions at Abu Musa and the Tunb islands in July 2026 targeted missile storage, coastal defenses, and related infrastructure to limit threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping, but left Iranian administrative and military control intact.** Iran has responded with volunteer mobilizations, additional missile deployments, and leadership changes reinforcing defensive readiness around the islands it has held since 1971 amid the longstanding UAE sovereignty dispute. No ground operations, occupation, or handover have occurred. As the August 31, 2026 resolution date approaches, trader pricing reflects the absence of any development capable of shifting primary governmental or military authority away from Tehran in the remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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