Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДемократы 8-10% 28%
Демократы 6-8% 22%
Демократы 10-12% 20%
Демократы 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Объем
$133,598 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократы 16%+
1%
Демократы 14-16%
2%
Демократы 12-14%
7%
Демократы 10-12%
20%
Демократы 8-10%
28%
Демократы 6-8%
22%
Демократы 4-6%
11%
Демократы 2-4%
7%
Демократы 0-2%
2%
Республиканцы 0-2%
3%
Республиканцы 2-4%
3%
Республиканцы 4–6%
1%
Республиканцы 6%+
1%
Демократы 8-10% 28%
Демократы 6-8% 22%
Демократы 10-12% 20%
Демократы 4-6% 11%
$133,598 Объем
$133,598 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократы 16%+
$3,556 Объем
1%
Демократы 14-16%
$3,412 Объем
2%
Демократы 12-14%
$4,597 Объем
7%
Демократы 10-12%
$8,975 Объем
20%
Демократы 8-10%
$14,498 Объем
28%
Демократы 6-8%
$15,599 Объем
22%
Демократы 4-6%
$7,010 Объем
11%
Демократы 2-4%
$15,636 Объем
7%
Демократы 0-2%
$16,265 Объем
2%
Республиканцы 0-2%
$5,931 Объем
3%
Республиканцы 2-4%
$30,409 Объем
3%
Республиканцы 4–6%
$3,748 Объем
1%
Республиканцы 6%+
$3,962 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Открытие рынка: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$133,598Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Объем
$133,598Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the national generic ballot environment at a Democratic lead of roughly 5 to 8 points, reflecting the typical midterm penalty for the president's party amid low approval ratings and voter concerns over the economy and foreign policy developments. This backdrop has positioned Democratic popular-vote margins of 6-10 points as the leading market outcomes, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to those buckets. Redistricting adjustments and campaign spending patterns have also factored into assessments of how national sentiment translates to seat outcomes, though the popular vote itself remains the direct focus. Scheduled events such as upcoming debates and final campaign pushes could still shift the environment before November.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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