US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining only a virtual embassy and relying on Switzerland as protecting power. Recent developments center on the February 2026 military exchanges and the June Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, yet August talks have stalled over Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, compensation demands, and nuclear issues, with both sides applying economic and diplomatic pressure. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening reflects these persistent barriers and absence of any normalization roadmap within the 2026 window. A breakthrough in indirect talks or major de-escalation could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current deadlock and unresolved grievances make such an outcome improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOs EUA vão reabrir a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?
Os EUA vão reabrir a sua embaixada no Irão em 2026?
Sim
5% chance
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
30 dez 2026
Sim
5% chance
$158,294 Vol.
$158,294 Vol.
30 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining only a virtual embassy and relying on Switzerland as protecting power. Recent developments center on the February 2026 military exchanges and the June Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, yet August talks have stalled over Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, compensation demands, and nuclear issues, with both sides applying economic and diplomatic pressure. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening reflects these persistent barriers and absence of any normalization roadmap within the 2026 window. A breakthrough in indirect talks or major de-escalation could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current deadlock and unresolved grievances make such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Volume
$158,294Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining only a virtual embassy and relying on Switzerland as protecting power. Recent developments center on the February 2026 military exchanges and the June Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, yet August talks have stalled over Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, compensation demands, and nuclear issues, with both sides applying economic and diplomatic pressure. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening reflects these persistent barriers and absence of any normalization roadmap within the 2026 window. A breakthrough in indirect talks or major de-escalation could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current deadlock and unresolved grievances make such an outcome improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$158,294Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran diplomatic relations remain severed since 1979, with Washington maintaining only a virtual embassy and relying on Switzerland as protecting power. Recent developments center on the February 2026 military exchanges and the June Islamabad Memorandum aimed at ending hostilities, yet August talks have stalled over Strait of Hormuz access, sanctions relief, compensation demands, and nuclear issues, with both sides applying economic and diplomatic pressure. Trader consensus at 95.5% against reopening reflects these persistent barriers and absence of any normalization roadmap within the 2026 window. A breakthrough in indirect talks or major de-escalation could still shift probabilities before year-end, though current deadlock and unresolved grievances make such an outcome improbable.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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