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icon for Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?
Geopolítica·Venezuela

Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?

icon for Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?
Geopolítica·Venezuela

Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?

Sim

3% chance
Polymarket

$249,401 Vol.

Sim

3% chance
Polymarket

$249,401 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Strong diplomatic resistance from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, combined with ongoing bilateral security cooperation on cartel enforcement and fentanyl interdiction, underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026. Despite early-2026 rhetoric from the Trump administration about potential strikes on designated terrorist cartels and related military movements, Mexico has consistently rejected unilateral intervention while delivering measurable results such as extraditions and joint operations. Deep economic ties under the USMCA further discourage escalation. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden breakdowns in cooperation, major cross-border incidents, or rapid policy changes, though no such developments have materialized to date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$249,401
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Strong diplomatic resistance from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, combined with ongoing bilateral security cooperation on cartel enforcement and fentanyl interdiction, underpins the 96.9% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026. Despite early-2026 rhetoric from the Trump administration about potential strikes on designated terrorist cartels and related military movements, Mexico has consistently rejected unilateral intervention while delivering measurable results such as extraditions and joint operations. Deep economic ties under the USMCA further discourage escalation. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden breakdowns in cooperation, major cross-border incidents, or rapid policy changes, though no such developments have materialized to date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$249,401
Data de Término
31 dez 2026
Mercado Aberto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?" has generated $249.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?" is "Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?" at just 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Os EUA vão invadir o México em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.